Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 14 Jul 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

186 bp

Avg level percentile

79 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

7 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.22	10.42	605	98	-0.1	42	+24.3	67	+63.5*	451–605		66
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.55	10.00	566	53	+0.1	46	+28.0	74	-184.1	416–856		246
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	5.00	5.82	152	–	+0.0	–	+27.5	–	+48.0*	104–152		15
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.70	5.79	150	99	+0.1	51	+23.5	98	+13.1	66–154		384
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	4.00	5.03	78	75	+0.2	54	+8.0	95	+5.7	62–115		384
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.83	4.97	68	99	+0.2	52	+23.7	100	+34.4	27–71		384
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.97	4.89	67	61	+0.1	54	+10.4	97	+4.3	49–112		384
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.75	5.01	66	29	+0.1	57	+10.5	96	-5.1	29–6000		384
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	5.09	4.92	62	99	+0.0	51	+19.9	100	+23.2	29–64		384
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.59	4.76	48	100	+0.0	46	+13.0	98	+6.6*	-5–48		107

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNN Markets / TipRanks (via CNN) · 2026-07-13

CoreWeave bonds plunge 4%+ on July 13 as neocloud stocks broadly sell off; CEO sold $30M in stock July 10

Secondary-market credit stress signal: CoreWeave shares fell ~4.26% on July 13 with option markets moderately bearish, compounding investor anxiety about the company's ~$25B debt load and negative free cash flow. CEO stock sales ($30M on July 10, $38M on July 3) add governance/confidence concerns for bondholders watching covenant headroom.

Dealogic data cited by congress.net (published July 13, 2026) · 2026-07-13

AI hyperscalers issued $159B in bonds in first five months of 2026; analysts now project ~$300B in AI-related debt for full year — surpassing all prior five years combined

Systemic credit-market significance: the $300B full-year forecast for AI-capex bond issuance would represent an unprecedented structural shift in investment-grade composition, crowding out other issuers, widening spreads for lower-rated names (Oracle, SpaceX), and raising absorption risk for the Treasury market.

Bloomberg / Advisor Perspectives (published ~June 26, 2026) · 2026-06-26

SpaceX's $25B bond deal — the largest IG debut in history — suffers ~$305M in paper losses in secondary trading; 30-year tranche widens 28bps from issue

Landmark credit-market stress event: SpaceX's record $25B debut (rated BBB/Baa1/BBB+ by all three agencies) immediately broke down in secondary trading at a pace traders called unprecedented, signalling that fast-money accounts — not buy-and-hold institutions — absorbed supply. Fitch flagged Elon Musk dependence as a 'key rating constraint' and S&P projects negative free cash flow through 2029, raising questions about BBB-tier AI capex issuers broadly.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-07-14T23:15:14.