Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 15 Jul 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

179 bp

Avg level percentile

66 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

1 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.21	10.42	598	96	+0.0	44	+22.3	66	+56.4*	451–605		68
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.55	10.00	559	52	+0.0	46	+38.1	80	-191.6	416–856		248
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	5.00	5.82	145	–	+0.0	–	+13.2	–	+40.9*	104–152		17
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.69	5.79	143	94	+0.0	50	+9.8	88	+6.1	66–154		386
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	4.00	5.03	70	30	+0.0	50	+0.5	56	-1.6	62–115		386
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.82	4.97	60	98	+0.0	49	+13.2	98	+27.4	27–71		386
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.75	5.01	60	15	+0.0	54	-1.6	44	-11.6	29–6000		386
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.96	4.89	59	22	+0.0	51	-2.4	27	-3.5	49–112		386
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	5.08	4.92	55	98	+0.0	51	+4.7	87	+16.3	29–64		386
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.59	4.76	41	89	+0.0	46	+3.7	82	-0.5*	-5–48		109

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

S&P Global Ratings / HNGN / Yahoo Finance / MLQ News · 2026-07-09 (downgrade published); stock slumped 6.47% on 2026-07-13 — within 48h window

S&P Global Downgrades Oracle to BBB-/A-3 from BBB/A-2, One Notch Above Junk, Citing $42B Free Cash Flow Deficit and OpenAI Concentration Risk

S&P cut Oracle to the lowest investment-grade rung, flagging a projected $42B annual free cash flow deficit in FY2027, $167B in total debt, and extreme customer concentration — OpenAI represents ~50% of Oracle's $638B backlog. Oracle is now forced to raise $20B in dilutive equity to defend its investment-grade status. A further one-notch cut would trigger forced selling by investment-grade-only funds and blow out its already-elevated CDS spreads, with direct knock-on risk for AI data-center financing broadly.

Seoul Economic Daily (citing Bloomberg/IFR data) / IFR / Neuberger Berman · 2026-07-14

SpaceX BBB-Rated 30-Year Bond Spread Exceeds BB High-Yield Average as Wall Street Dealers Turn Net Sellers of Corporate Bonds for First Time Since 1998

SpaceX's BBB-rated 30-year bond is now trading at a spread exceeding the average BB (sub-investment-grade) yield — a stark ratings-market disconnect. Simultaneously, Wall Street dealers have become net sellers of IG corporate bonds for the first time since 1998, signalling that primary-dealer risk appetite for AI-capex paper is exhausting. With SpaceX burning ~$14B in free cash flow annually and its $25B June bond debut described as 'the start of a sustained program,' this spread inversion is an early systemic warning for the entire AI debt supercycle.

Fortune / Yahoo Finance (citing Bank of America research note) · 2026-07-08 (deal priced); BofA note and market commentary active through 2026-07-14

Amazon's $25B Bond Sale Draws Weakest Hyperscaler Demand on Record — Orders Just 1.6–2.5x Cover — as AI Debt Supply Fatigue Hits Credit Markets

Amazon — the most prolific IG issuer in 2026 at $92B year-to-date — had to offer 18–21 bps of extra concession on its longest tranches and still achieved only 1.6–2.5x book cover, the weakest hyperscaler print since Meta's $30B deal in October 2025. BofA explicitly warned 'Investors are pushing back,' and that the deal injects uncertainty into the hyperscaler supply outlook. With $300B+ in AI-capex bonds expected in 2026, deteriorating demand technicals at Amazon's credit quality level signal that spread widening and higher all-in borrowing costs across the entire issuer group — including Alphabet, Meta, and CoreWeave — may be imminent.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-07-15T07:29:36.