Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 20 Jul 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
186 bp
Avg level percentile
65 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.2010.80648100+0.043+42.983+106.4*451–64871
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.5410.3360569+1.150+38.580-145.6416–856251
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.685.7314897+0.355-2.834+10.366–157389
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠4.995.67139–+0.0–-13.5–+34.5*104–15220
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.994.957245+0.456-5.112+0.662–115389
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.954.775821+0.257-9.13-4.849–112389
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.744.885510+0.259-11.65-16.729–6000389
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG5.074.815297+0.051-9.52+13.729–64389
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.814.704485+0.355-23.80+10.627–71389
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.574.623663+0.046-12.12-5.5*-5–48112
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

S&P Global Ratings / InsiderFinance (citing S&P) · 2026-07-14
S&P Global Ratings Downgrades Oracle to BBB-, One Notch Above Junk, Citing $55.7B AI Capex and Negative Free Cash Flow
S&P cut Oracle's long-term issuer credit rating from BBB to BBB- on July 9, placing it one notch above junk. FY2026 capex surged 162% to $55.7B, generating a $23.7B free-cash-flow deficit. Total debt is ~$130–167B. Management plans to raise ~$40B more in FY2027 via debt and equity. A further downgrade would trigger fallen-angel selling across IG bond indices, materially raising Oracle's cost of capital for its $70B FY2027 AI infrastructure programme.
Fortune / CNBC / Bank of America Research · 2026-07-08
Amazon's 'Surprise' $25B Bond Sale Draws Weakest Hyperscaler Demand on Record, Rattling AI-Debt Markets
Amazon's July 7 eight-tranche IG bond sale raised $25B but priced with 18–21 bps of extra yield concession on long bonds and drew only 2.5x oversubscription—the weakest for any hyperscaler since Meta's $30B deal in Oct 2025. BofA flagged it as a credit-market stress signal: hyperscaler spreads widened 6–15 bps sector-wide and the 10-year Treasury moved 8 bps. Amazon's trailing-12-month free cash flow has collapsed to $1.2B (from $25.9B a year ago), with $200B in 2026 capex planned. The weak reception signals investor fatigue with AI-capex debt supply, a pivotal read-across for all issuers in this peer group.
Seeking Alpha / CNBC / SpaceX IR (SEC EDGAR) · 2026-07-16
SpaceX's Inaugural $25B Investment-Grade Bonds Widen Sharply in Secondary Market, Testing AI-Debt Capacity
SpaceX priced a $25B five-tranche senior unsecured debut on June 23 (settled June 26), the largest IG debut by any US issuer in 2026, attracting ~$90B in orders. However, post-settlement secondary spread widening has been significant: the 5-year CDS and longer tranches (2046/2056, coupon 6.6–6.65%) moved well above 160 bps over Treasuries—levels more typical of sub-IG credits. With $41.3B in accumulated losses, negative FCF of ~$14B in 2025, and this debt programme described as the start of a sustained issuance cycle, credit investors are now scrutinising whether AI infrastructure cash flows can service the new debt load, with direct read-across to CoreWeave, Oracle, and other speculative-grade AI-capex issuers.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-07-20T14:26:14.