Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 23 Jul 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

191 bp

Avg level percentile

64 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

2 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.19	11.13	673	99	+6.1	61	+53.9	94	+131.6*	451–679		74
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.53	10.52	614	72	-4.5	39	+42.5	83	-136.3	416–856		254
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.67	6.03	168	100	+21.1	100	+19.6	96	+30.3	66–168		392
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	4.98	5.87	150	–	+6.0	–	+7.7	–	+45.7*	104–152		23
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.94	4.90	60	24	-2.6	14	+0.0	51	-2.8	49–112		392
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.73	4.99	57	14	+4.3	94	-2.3	40	-14.9	29–6000		392
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.98	4.87	53	0	-16.6	0	-19.6	0	-18.6	53–115		392
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	5.06	4.89	52	97	-3.5	6	-0.8	42	+13.2	26–64		392
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.80	4.86	50	97	+4.7	97	+3.0	76	+17.2	27–71		392
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.57	4.73	37	71	-0.3	44	-2.4	31	-4.0*	-5–48		115

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

S&P Global Ratings / Bloomberg / The Next Web · 2026-07-09 (rating action); widely reported 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16

S&P Global Ratings cuts Oracle's long-term issuer credit rating to BBB−, one notch above junk, citing $250B AI data-centre buildout and projected $42B free-cash-flow deficit in FY2027

Oracle — now the second-largest non-financial issuer in the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index with $117B outstanding — has been pushed to the lowest investment-grade rung. Moody's also carries a negative outlook, meaning a further cut to junk is possible. With a $638B backlog ~50% concentrated in OpenAI and a FY2027 FOCF deficit of ~$42B, Oracle's ability to fund its $95B FY2027 capex plan without an equity dilution programme or covenant breach is a key systemic risk for the AI-capex credit cycle.

Fortune / CNBC / BofA credit note · 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-08

Amazon prices $25B eight-tranche bond sale — its third major 2026 offering — but demand cover slumps to 2.5x from 3.2x in March, the weakest hyperscaler print since Meta's October 2025 deal, flagging AI-debt supply fatigue

Amazon was forced to offer 18–21 bps of extra yield on its longest bonds to clear the deal. Total 2026 debt issuance now exceeds $106B against a $200B capex budget; trailing-12-month free cash flow has collapsed ~95% to $1.2B. Amazon's pledge to issue no further debt in 2026 removes a supply overhang but raises questions about whether internal cash generation can cover the remainder of its capex programme, making Q2 earnings (late July) a pivotal credit event.

TradingKey / Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg-sourced bond data) · 2026-07-20

CoreWeave shares fall 25% in July as Oracle S&P downgrade reignites 'high-capex + high-debt' model anxiety across AI cloud names; CoreWeave's 9.625% senior notes (June 2026 issue) trade down to 96.50 / 10.42% yield in secondary market

CoreWeave's June 11 9.625% six-year senior notes — its first public HY bond — have slumped well below par within weeks of pricing, a sign of secondary-market stress for neocloud AI issuers. With $30–35B of planned 2026 capex, $14.7B in long-term debt and negative free cash flow, any further spread widening will raise the company's cost of capital and complicate future debt raises, even after its March 2026 $8.5B investment-grade-rated (Moody's A3) DDTL facility.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-07-23T06:01:04.