Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 31 Jul 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

248 bp

Avg level percentile

83 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

8 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 82 bp (+13 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.17	13.52	915	100	+131.0	100	+248.3	100	+373.6*	451–915		80
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.51	12.49	814	99	+32.1	93	+192.0	100	+63.3	416–856		260
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.65	6.17	182	100	+9.4	97	+19.0	95	+44.4	66–182		398
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	4.96	6.12	176	–	-0.8	–	+25.3	–	+72.2*	104–177		29
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.96	5.15	83	89	+8.9	99	+14.6	98	+11.1	53–115		398
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	5.04	5.07	70	100	-0.7	38	+15.0	98	+31.7	26–71		398
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.71	5.08	66	31	-4.5	7	+10.3	95	-5.2	29–160		398
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.78	5.00	64	99	+4.3	96	+17.8	99	+31.1	27–71		398
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.92	4.88	60	25	-0.7	41	+1.7	69	-2.7	49–112		398
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.54	4.84	49	100	+4.1	93	+19.5	98	+7.7*	-5–49		121

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Reuters (via Yahoo Finance / LSE.co.uk syndication) · 2026-07-29

Hyperscaler Debt Binge Pushes Yields Up as Investor Demand Cools

Reuters/LSEG data show Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle have issued ~$194bn in bonds YTD (+79% vs. all of 2025), but secondary-market performance is deteriorating sharply: 78 of 91 hyperscaler bonds trade wider than issuance, with a median yield increase of ~22 bps. Cover ratios have collapsed from ~5x in February to below 2x in July, signalling that incremental AI-capex financing will cost materially more. Goldman Sachs projects combined hyperscaler issuance hitting $250bn in 2026 and $400bn in 2027, raising structural spread-widening risk for all investment-grade AI-capex borrowers on this list.

TechTimes (citing DTCC CDS data and Moody's July 2026 credit warning) · 2026-07-30

CoreWeave CDS Hits 50% Five-Year Default Odds; Stock Falls 9% as GPU Debt Spiral Fears Mount

CoreWeave's 5-year CDS spread has widened to 855 bps, implying a ~50% cumulative default probability under standard recovery assumptions — distressed-borrower levels for a company with only ~$6.2bn in trailing revenue but $31–35bn in 2026 capex needs. The same Moody's note cited flagged combined direct debt of ~$460bn across six hyperscalers (including CoreWeave, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle), with a further $1.2tn in off-balance-sheet data-centre lease commitments. Rising CDS directly raises CoreWeave's future debt-issuance cost, creating a dangerous feedback loop given its heavy refinancing calendar.

Digital Today / CNBC (bond market anxiety report, July 28–29 2026) · 2026-07-29

Alphabet's $195–205bn Capex Hike and Negative Free Cash Flow Spark Bond-Market Anxiety Ahead of Amazon and Meta Earnings

Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guide to $195–205bn and reported its first-ever negative quarterly free cash flow, sending shares down 7% and dragging Amazon and Meta lower. Alphabet's long-term debt surged 111% in H1 2026 to $98bn; Amazon's rose 81% to $119bn. With Meta reporting July 30 and Amazon July 31, credit markets are scrutinising whether further capex hikes — funded by yet more bond issuance into an already saturated market — will accelerate spread widening for the entire AI-capex issuer complex.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-07-31T06:01:36.