Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 11 Aug 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

211 bp

Avg level percentile

75 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

1 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 73 bp (+3 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.14	11.86	751	90	-8.8	24	-24.9	15	+209.5*	451–915		87
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.48	11.36	704	85	-6.0	37	-40.2	16	-46.8	416–856		267
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.62	5.84	151	96	-1.0	36	-30.0	0	+14.0	66–182		405
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	4.93	5.77	143	–	-3.9	–	-11.5	–	+38.7*	104–177		36
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.93	5.06	78	75	+0.9	64	+1.1	62	+5.7	53–115		405
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	5.01	4.96	62	97	+3.8	94	-2.8	23	+22.9	26–71		405
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.68	5.01	61	21	+5.0	95	+6.2	87	-10.4	29–160		405
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.89	4.80	56	14	+1.6	74	+1.7	70	-6.8	49–112		405
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.75	4.86	53	97	+0.9	62	+2.3	71	+19.8	27–71		405
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.51	4.81	48	98	-0.2	46	+11.7	96	+7.0*	-5–49		128

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

SEC EDGAR – Equinix Form 424B2 / Form 8-K (FY2026) · 2026-08-06

Equinix prices $3 billion four-tranche investment-grade bond offering dated August 6, 2026

Equinix raised $3 bn across four tranches (5.000% 2029, 5.250% 2031, 5.500% 2033, 5.800% 2036) via its own and its Europe 2 Financing Corp. subsidiaries, settling August 6. The multi-currency structure (the 2031 tranche swapped to euros at ~3.95%) is one of the largest single data-centre REIT bond prints of 2026, directly funding AI-era colocation capex and confirming that investment-grade demand for hyperscale-adjacent issuers remains open—at notably higher coupons than 2024 vintage deals.

Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg (citing JPMorgan arranger sources); TechTimes analysis citing loan-market sources · 2026-07-31

CoreWeave completes $2.6 billion term loan at S+550 — spread flexed 100-125 bps wider with maintenance covenants added; Q2 earnings call August 11

CoreWeave's $2.6 bn first-lien DDTL (due Sept. 2031, YTM 10.44%) was repriced from initial talk of S+425-450 to S+550 with OID of 97, and lenders imposed a 1.35x DSCR maintenance covenant and full amortisation before committing—a concrete sign of AI-loan 'lender fatigue.' The deal closed one week before CoreWeave's Q2 2026 earnings call on August 11, where markets are watching whether interest expense (guided $650-730 m/quarter) and the $99.4 bn backlog-to-capital model hold up under rising borrowing costs.

S&P Global Ratings / Yahoo Finance (Oracle Credit Risk analysis) · 2026-07-21

S&P Global Ratings cuts Oracle to BBB- (one notch above junk) as AI data-centre capex drives negative free cash flow of $23.7 bn in FY2026

S&P downgraded Oracle one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade tier, citing a $250 bn data-centre build programme that produced negative free cash flow of $23.7 bn in FY2026, with the deficit potentially widening to $42 bn in FY2027. The cut pushed Oracle's 5-year CDS spread to ~203 bps, an 18-year high. Moody's retains a negative outlook (Baa2), flagging a possible further downgrade. Oracle raised $43 bn in debt and $5 bn in equity in FY2026 and plans ~$40 bn more in FY2027, testing the limits of investment-grade capacity for AI-capex issuers.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-08-11T06:01:22.