Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 19 Aug 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

207 bp

Avg level percentile

75 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

2 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 76 bp (+7 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.12	11.67	729	88	+2.8	47	-44.3	8	+187.7*	451–915		93
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.45	11.02	668	80	-14.0	24	-53.9	15	-82.5	416–856		273
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.60	5.99	164	98	+10.8	97	+8.4	83	+26.7	66–182		411
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	4.90	5.81	145	–	+4.3	–	-0.3	–	+40.3*	104–177		42
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.90	5.06	75	64	-3.7	7	+19.2	99	+3.4	53–115		411
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.66	5.08	65	29	+7.6	98	+3.5	75	-6.9	29–160		411
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	4.99	5.01	64	99	+0.8	66	+1.2	62	+25.0	26–78		411
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.87	4.83	60	26	+4.6	95	+5.3	91	-3.1	49–112		411
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.73	4.91	55	96	-7.9	1	+0.1	49	+22.1	27–71		411
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.49	4.82	48	92	-2.9	12	-3.3	27	+6.6*	-5–51		134

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Reuters (via Benzinga, citing LSEG data) · 2026-08-18

AI's Half-Trillion-Dollar Borrowing Binge Is Competing With Uncle Sam for Bond Buyers

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle collectively sold ~$194 billion in bonds through early July 2026 — up 79% vs. all of 2025 — with Goldman Sachs projecting the quartet plus Microsoft will reach $250 billion this year and $400 billion in 2027. The sheer volume is now competing directly with US Treasury supply for fixed-income capital, raising sovereign-crowding concerns and putting pressure on all investment-grade credit spreads across the sector.

Yahoo Finance / Reuters (Reuters London dispatch, Aug 4; Yahoo Finance analysis, Aug 19) · 2026-08-19

Oracle CapEx Risk: Free Cash Flow Hits -$23.7 Billion, BBB- Rating Hangs as Investors Price Bonds at Near-Junk Yields

Oracle's FY2026 CapEx hit $55.66 billion against operating cash flow of just $31.98 billion, producing negative free cash flow of -$23.69 billion, and non-current debt climbed to $124.7 billion (~4.3x EBITDA). S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB- in July — one notch above junk — while Moody's maintains a negative outlook, meaning a further cut to high-yield would trigger index-exclusion selling. Oracle's 5-year CDS has reached an 18-year high of ~203 bps, making it the credit market's de facto proxy for AI-capex stress.

Yahoo Finance (AI CapEx Risk analysis, Aug 19 2026) · 2026-08-19

Amazon Q2 2026: CapEx Hits $54 Billion in a Single Quarter, H1 Free Cash Flow Turns Negative $27 Billion

Amazon's Q2 2026 standalone CapEx of $54.21 billion pushed first-half free cash flow to -$27 billion — a dramatic reversal for a company that generated $140 billion of cash flow in 2025. CEO Andy Jassy explicitly warned of continued 'free cash flow headwinds' as the company funds multi-gigawatt Trainium commitments for OpenAI and Anthropic. This FCF deterioration directly threatens Amazon's ability to self-fund and raises the prospect of additional bond issuances on top of the ~$54 billion already raised in 2026, adding to crowding pressure in credit markets.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-08-19T06:01:05.