Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 10 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

213 bp

Avg level percentile

75 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

1 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 74 bp (+5 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.06	12.10	755	79	-24.3	5	-96.2	1	+213.4*	451–915		109
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.39	11.62	709	81	-31.2	7	-89.5	7	-41.3	416–856		289
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.54	6.06	153	92	-7.1	3	-9.7	8	+15.9	66–182		427
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY ⚠	4.84	5.98	143	–	-1.7	–	+0.8	–	+38.6*	104–177		58
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.84	5.30	81	86	+1.6	74	+1.7	67	+9.3	53–115		427
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.81	5.05	63	41	+3.9	93	+5.6	92	+0.2	49–112		427
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.60	5.22	62	26	+1.4	72	-0.8	48	-9.3	29–160		427
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	4.93	5.16	60	92	+0.1	53	-1.5	35	+21.2	26–78		427
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.67	5.08	54	94	-0.1	47	+1.9	67	+20.4	27–71		427
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.43	5.00	47	86	-1.2	32	-0.5	47	+5.5*	-9–51		150

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Startup Fortune (citing Financial Times / S&P Global / Reuters-LSEG data) · 2026-09-09

Amazon and Alphabet's AI Bond Binge Is Repricing Debt Markets Worldwide — $220B+ Issued in 2026, Spilling Into CHF, CAD and Sterling Markets

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle and Nvidia have collectively issued ~$220B in investment-grade bonds in 2026, already surpassing all of 2025, and are now crowding out sovereign and corporate borrowers in non-dollar markets (Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, sterling). S&P Global places the figure at $225B — a ~974% year-over-year jump — and median spreads on 2–4yr paper have widened 10bp to 40bp over Treasuries. The supply overhang is structurally repricing the global IG credit market, with cover ratios falling and secondary-market prices below issuance on 78 of 91 deals tracked by Reuters.

Benzinga (citing Reuters / LSEG data; Kobeissi Letter, Sep 5 2026) · 2026-09-07

Big Tech AI Debt Boom 'Driving' Treasury Yields Higher as $320B Combined 2026 Issuance Projected — Kobeissi Letter / Benzinga, citing Reuters-LSEG

Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle alone issued $194B in bonds through early July 2026 (+79% vs all of 2025). Combined Big Tech issuance including SPVs is projected to hit a record $320B for the full year (+60% YoY). Market commentators now argue hyperscaler supply is a structural upward driver of Treasury yields — a systemic credit-market spillover that directly affects funding costs for Digital Realty, Equinix and any other issuer competing for the same IG investor pool.

247 Wall St. · 2026-09-01

Oracle Falls 4% as Bond Selloff Tests Its Debt-Funded AI Buildout — $43B Raised in Debt vs $56B FY2026 Capex Leaves It Most Leveraged Mega-Cap AI Builder

Oracle funded $55.7B in FY2026 capex — up from $21.2B the prior year — by raising $43B in debt markets and $5B in equity, producing a $23.7B cash outflow gap. A rising 10-year Treasury yield is repricing Oracle's debt-heavy balance sheet in real time, pushing the stock below its 200-day moving average. With S&P having downgraded Oracle to BBB– Stable in July 2026 (one notch above junk) and Moody's maintaining Baa2 with negative outlook, any further rate spike or capex miss risks a fallen-angel event — the most acute single-name credit stress story in the AI-capex issuer universe.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-10T06:01:15.