Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 23 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
212 bp
Avg level percentile
51 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 63 bp (-6 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Sep 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0212.8980794-8.327+38.470+265.3*451–915115
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3612.1773487-9.432+11.255-16.4416–856295
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.506.3815694+7.395+6.879+19.066–182433
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.816.1613321-0.344-7.9–+28.9*104–17764
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.815.557350-3.310-10.82+1.543–115433
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.565.405612-24.10-4.228-15.929–160433
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.775.355613-0.937-7.26-7.347–112433
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.635.284682+2.686-7.96+12.927–71433
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.405.203861-1.825-10.15-3.2*-9–51156
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.895.01190-35.40-39.00-19.519–78433
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Reuters · 2026-09-22
Corporate Bond Buyers Get Picky With Flood of AI Debt
Reuters reports that investment-grade credit markets have bifurcated: AI-capex issuers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) now face buyer fatigue and demands for larger new-issue concessions, while non-tech issuers clear at tight spreads. Goldman Sachs projects hyperscaler gross issuance will hit a record $420 billion in 2027, up 60% from 2026, meaning supply pressure — and the concentration risk forcing portfolio managers to rethink limits — is set to intensify further. Alphabet was specifically cited as having been forced to offer a sizable pricing concession on its August bond sale.
Vanguard / Chief Investment Officer (ai-cio.com) · 2026-09-22
AI Buildout Comes to the Bond Market: Hyperscalers Have Issued ~$132 Billion Year-to-Date, Reshaping Corporate Credit
Published within the 48-hour window (timestamped '2 hours ago' on Sept 22), this piece draws on Vanguard research to show the five major hyperscalers have collectively issued ~$132 billion in debt year-to-date in 2026 — nearly 4x their 2020-2024 annual average of $35 billion and already surpassing the full-year 2025 figure of $93 billion. The acceleration underscores structural credit-market shift as tech now dominates IG supply, with one multitranche offering alone reaching ~$53 billion. Total AI-ecosystem debt issuance (including chipmakers and data-center developers) is estimated at $300–$570 billion for full-year 2026.
CNBC (citing Moody's Investors Service report) · 2026-07-24
Moody's Says 'Unprecedented' AI Spending Threatens Credit Quality; Lease Commitments Balloon to $1.2 Trillion
⚠️ NOTE: This item is dated July 24, 2026 — outside the strict 48-hour window. It is included here for context because no third qualifying reputable-source item (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, S&P/Moody's/Fitch, or company IR) dated Sept 21–23, 2026 was retrievable for the remaining issuers (CoreWeave, Digital Realty, Equinix, Micron, SpaceX). The Moody's report warned that off-balance-sheet lease commitments across hyperscalers have ballooned to $1.2 trillion — over $820 billion from leases not yet commenced — treating them as debt-equivalent liabilities and flagging credit-quality risk from 'unprecedented' capex of $785 billion projected for 2026. This directly affects Digital Realty and Equinix as the primary counterparties on those leases.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-23T06:01:05.