Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 29 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

222 bp

Avg level percentile

76 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

3 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 75 bp (+6 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.00	13.13	816	96	+1.9	47	+0.9	41	+274.5*	451–915		119
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.34	12.26	730	86	-5.7	38	-13.4	36	-20.4	416–856		299
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.48	6.65	169	98	+10.4	97	+20.1	97	+31.8	66–182		437
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY	4.79	6.43	147	67	+1.1	56	+13.4	77	+42.6*	104–177		68
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.79	5.76	81	85	+3.2	91	+4.1	82	+8.9	43–115		437
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.75	5.53	63	42	+1.9	77	+6.6	94	+0.2	47–112		437
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.54	5.59	59	18	+10.3	98	-20.6	0	-12.4	29–160		437
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	4.88	5.54	57	91	+2.3	84	+2.5	73	+18.4	19–78		437
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.62	5.50	53	93	+1.3	71	+10.0	96	+20.3	27–71		437
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.38	5.42	45	84	+2.3	81	+5.5	83	+4.1*	-9–51		160

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg · 2026-09-23

CoreWeave-Tied Data Center Raises $1.1 Billion in Junk Bonds at 9.25% Yield

A Blue Owl-sponsored data center financing CoreWeave infrastructure priced $1.1B of 5-year junk bonds at 9.25% — roughly 270bps above similarly rated peers — signalling that project-level AI infrastructure credit is under acute stress and lenders are demanding a steep premium to underwrite GPU-collateralised, single-tenant exposure.

NAI500 (citing Reuters, Goldman Sachs, ICE BofA, Financial Times, Morgan Stanley) · 2026-09-29

AI Hyperscalers Turn to Debt as Bond Spreads Widen to ~115bps and Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments Top $3.1 Trillion

By late September 2026 AI-issuer credit spreads had widened to ~115bps vs ~78bps for the broader IG market; hyperscaler bond cover ratios fell from ~5x in February to ~2x in July; and FT/Morgan Stanley tallied >$3.1 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments across seven hyperscalers and chipmakers — crystallising the scale of hidden leverage not captured in headline bond figures.

Benzinga (citing FT, UBP) · 2026-09-29

AI's $1 Trillion Funding Problem Is Moving From Stocks to Bonds as Credit Markets Become the Next AI Catalyst

FT-cited analysis warns that riskier AI infrastructure issuers such as CoreWeave are tapping high-yield markets while UBP estimates the five hyperscalers' cumulative investment could reach $5.6 trillion through 2030; if capex returns lag, pressure will appear in bond spreads and borrowing costs — making the credit market, not Nasdaq, the next decisive signal for the AI investment cycle.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-29T06:01:10.