Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 01 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
224 bp
Avg level percentile
76 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
4 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 76 bp (+6 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0013.2482097+0.444+27.561+278.3*451–915121
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3412.4273988-4.340+16.861-11.4416–856301
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.486.7717499-5.48+21.797+36.566–182439
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.796.5415078-3.219+15.080+45.4*104–17770
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.795.828186+2.584+7.593+9.443–115439
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.755.566134-1.135-1.436-1.947–112439
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.545.696020-3.911+3.273-11.529–160439
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.875.635891-2.414+9.095+19.519–78439
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.615.585594-1.823+8.694+21.527–71439
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.385.454173-3.89+3.476+0.0*-9–51162
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

The Motley Fool / CNBC / Investing.com · 2026-09-30
Oracle's Long Bonds Yield Above 8% After Force Majeure Notice on Project Jupiter Data-Center Campus; Fallen-Angel Risk Intensifies
Oracle (S&P BBB-, one notch above junk) invoked force majeure to defer payments on its $18B+ Project Jupiter New Mexico data-center campus, sending its 2056 bonds to yields above 8% — levels that price the debt as speculative-grade. With Moody's still at Baa2 and Fitch not yet cutting, a second agency downgrade would trigger forced selling by IG-benchmark funds and push high-yield markets — already absorbing ~$28B in AI infrastructure junk debt in 2026 — to become the marginal financier of Oracle's 664B RPO buildout.
FXStreet (credit desk note, citing Bloomberg index methodology) · 2026-09-30
Oracle Fallen-Angel Analysis: S&P BBB- Plus ~$18B Jupiter Construction Package Trading Below Par Creates Two-Out-of-Three Index-Exclusion Cliff
A same-day credit desk note published on Sept 30 lays out the systemic mechanics: Bloomberg's major IG corporate indices use a two-out-of-three rating rule, so a second agency crossing into BB+ would force passive IG funds to liquidate Oracle bonds while the company still needs external capital to fund its AI buildout — an unprecedented situation where high yield would be asked to finance not existing debt but the next stage of construction. Oracle's stressed construction debt already trades below par, amplifying contagion risk across AI-capex credit.
Micron Technology IR / SEC Form 8-K · 2026-09-30
Micron Reports Record FY2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $62.3B; Board Declares Quarterly Dividend; Credit Upgrades from All Three Agencies to BBB+ Confirmed
Micron's Q4 FY2026 earnings release (filed Sept 30) shows adjusted FCF of $62.3B for the full year and $73.5B in cash/investments, contrasting sharply with Oracle's negative FCF and CoreWeave's junk-rated debt stack. All three major agencies upgraded Micron to BBB+ this fiscal year, reflecting CHIPS Act grant receipts of up to $6.4B and $22B in customer supply agreements that reduced net debt by $4.4B. The strong credit trajectory positions Micron as the AI-capex issuer with the most improved funding profile heading into FY2027's $27B+ capex ramp.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-01T06:01:39.