Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 02 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
223 bp
Avg level percentile
74 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
2 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 74 bp (+5 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0013.4083398+12.677+8.545+290.9*451–915122
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3312.4473988-0.345-10.439-11.7416–856302
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.486.7416998-5.28+19.695+31.366–182440
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.786.5314664-3.417+11.172+42.0*104–17771
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.785.848287+0.455+6.691+9.843–115440
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.755.586236+0.965+4.789-1.047–112440
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.545.736123+1.168+3.877-10.429–160440
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.875.615388-5.13-1.932+14.419–78440
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.615.575088-4.65+3.880+16.927–71440
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.375.474172-0.542+0.755-0.5*-9–51163
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

No qualifying items in the last 48h (or news step skipped).
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-02T06:01:27.