Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 03 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
229 bp
Avg level percentile
78 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
4 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 80 bp (+11 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9913.4784998+16.080+34.368+306.9*451–915123
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3312.2672984-9.931-6.942-21.6416–856303
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.476.7117399+4.588+14.492+35.866–182441
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.786.5015182+4.981+5.461+46.9*104–17772
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.785.788491+2.584+6.691+12.343–115441
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.615.7880100+29.9100+27.8100+46.827–80441
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.535.797545+13.899+26.199+3.429–160441
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.745.496238+0.359+1.063-0.747–112441
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.875.454570-8.41-10.12+6.019–78441
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.375.404275+1.169-1.243+0.6*-9–51164
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

AI-CIO (citing ICE Data Indices / Bloomberg data) · 2026-10-01
AI Debt Issuance Taking Up More Room in Bond Indexes as Tech's Weight in ICE BofA Global Index Approaches 4.5%
Confirms that AI-capex bond supply from the named issuers is now structurally reshaping major fixed-income benchmarks. ICE Data's Preston Peacock flags that all tech issuance represents ~4.5% of the ICE BofA Global Corporate & High Yield Index, with 2026 AI-related issuance estimates ranging $300B–$570B. Index-weight creep forces passive and benchmark-sensitive funds to absorb ever-larger allocations, compressing the marginal buyer base and raising spread risk for all issuers in the cohort.
Bloomberg · 2026-10-01
Carlyle Warns Private Credit's AI Push Raises Concentration Risk; Industry May Need ~$1 Trillion to Finance AI Compute Infrastructure
Carlyle's white paper, published October 1, estimates private credit must deploy ~$1 trillion—more than half of current industry AUM—to fund AI computing infrastructure (CoreWeave and data-center operators are primary borrowers). The concentration-risk warning is a direct credit-market stress signal: if private lenders pull back or reprice, issuers like CoreWeave that rely on non-recourse and club-loan structures face sharply higher refinancing costs, with knock-on effects for Equinix and Digital Realty sale-leaseback pipelines.
Dealroom (citing Bloomberg-reported deal) · 2026-09-25
Blue Owl-Backed Data Center Developer Raises $1.1 Billion in Junk Bonds Tied to CoreWeave Lease
A Blue Owl Capital affiliate priced $1.1B in high-yield bonds backed solely by a CoreWeave lease obligation—the latest in a string of junk-rated data-center financings (AI-related HY issuance YTD ~$28B per Bloomberg). The deal prices CoreWeave's implicit credit in the high-yield market even though CoreWeave itself carries no public IG rating, creating a shadow credit benchmark. Any deterioration in CoreWeave's contract pipeline would cascade directly into these single-tenant bonds, making this a leading indicator of stress in AI infrastructure credit. NOTE: dated ~8 days before the 48h window; included as the most recent discrete named-issuer transaction found; no newer verified item for the remaining issuers (Digital Realty, Equinix, Micron, SpaceX, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) was surfaced within the strict 48h window.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-03T06:01:00.