Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 06 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
227 bp
Avg level percentile
81 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
2 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 81 bp (+11 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9913.3483096-18.411+14.050+288.5*451–915124
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3212.3072883-1.244-2.446-22.8416–856304
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.476.82180100+6.893+10.888+42.666–182442
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.776.5515181-0.144+4.258+46.8*104–17773
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.776.0410599+21.1100+24.599+33.443–115442
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.745.657386+10.699+9.797+9.947–112442
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.535.706123-13.90+1.965-10.529–160442
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.865.595488+9.799-2.725+15.719–78442
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.605.555189-28.60-2.127+18.227–80442
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.365.434065-2.023-5.519-1.4*-9–51165
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Benzinga / TradingView · 2026-10-05
Highest Yielding Hyperscaler Bonds in October 2026: SpaceX Joins Oracle Above 7.5%
As of Oct 5, Oracle's long-dated bonds yield up to 8.45% and SpaceX's up to 7.84% — both above 7.5% — against a 30-year Treasury at 5.63%. Oracle carries $169.1B in total debt vs $67.2B equity (debt/equity of ~71.6%), and spreads of ~247 bps over Treasuries signal the market is pricing meaningful credit stress for the two highest-leverage names in the AI-capex cohort. With 121 bonds from these issuers now yielding above 6%, the secondary market is tightening financing conditions even before any new issuance.
Value Add VC (citing Yahoo Finance, Fitch, Moody's ratings data) · 2026-10-02
AI Data Center Debt Is Showing Up Everywhere: CoreWeave's $35B Debt Load and $640M Quarterly Interest Keeps It Cash-Flow Negative
CoreWeave's total debt has reached ~$35B with approximately $640M in quarterly interest payments, keeping the largest public neocloud cash-flow negative despite rapid revenue growth. Moody's (Ba2) and Fitch (BB+) have rated its latest DDTL 5.5 facility just below investment grade at SOFR+550, flagging real credit risk in GPU-backed debt. The piece contextualises this alongside Lambda's third GPU-backed loan and Fluidstack's $10B facility, highlighting systemic leverage risk across the neocloud segment that underpins AI-capex for Alphabet, Meta, and other hyperscalers.
Benzinga · 2026-10-03
Oracle 20-Year Bond Yields 8.1%: Can The Stock Match It?
Oracle's 2046 bond trades near 85 cents on the dollar, yielding 8.1% (~247 bps over Treasuries), with every bond due after 2044 now yielding 7.85%–8.44%. BofA's Michael Hartnett flagged Oracle at 8.4%, Meta at 7.5%, and Alphabet at 6.9% as 'buy humiliation' trades after IG tech bond prices fell ~9% over the past year and yields rose from 4.5% to 6.2%. This signals a material repricing of AI-capex credit risk: Oracle's S&P downgrade to BBB- in July 2026 (one notch above junk) and its $169B debt pile mean any further rating action from Moody's would widen CDS and raise the cost of Oracle's planned ~$40B FY27 financing round.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-06T06:01:03.