Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 07 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
227 bp
Avg level percentile
77 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 76 bp (+7 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9813.4484098+10.067+20.656+298.5*451–915125
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3212.5174992+21.283+5.551-1.6416–856305
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.466.7817599-5.010-4.325+37.666–182443
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.776.4814451-6.68-8.419+40.2*104–17774
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.775.838390-21.80+4.783+11.643–115443
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.525.776840+6.496+3.574-4.129–160443
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.735.586555-7.71+3.078+2.247–112443
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.855.605590+0.967-5.311+16.619–78443
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.595.524885-3.210-8.35+15.027–80443
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.365.444172+1.066-4.222-0.4*-9–51166
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Benzinga / TradingView Bond Screener · 2026-10-05
Oracle & SpaceX Lead AI-Capex Issuers With Bonds Yielding Above 7.5%; Oracle's 2066 Note Hits 8.45% as 121 Hyperscaler Bonds Now Clear 6%
As of Oct 5, TradingView's screener shows Oracle's longest-dated bonds (2065–2066) yielding 8.43–8.45%, well above the single-B junk average, despite a still-investment-grade BBB-/Baa2 rating. Oracle carries $169.1B in total debt against only $67.2B of equity (71.6% debt-to-capital). SpaceX has joined Oracle as the only two issuers in this AI-capex cohort with any bonds yielding above 7.5%, signalling acute credit-market stress at the long end and raising the stakes for any future issuance by either name.
Benzinga · 2026-10-03
Oracle 20-Year Bond Yields 8.1%, Pricing 247 bps Over Treasuries; S&P Cuts to BBB- (Last Rung Before Junk), Threatening Automatic Ejection of ~$120B From IG Indexes
S&P Global has downgraded Oracle to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rung, meaning one further notch would trigger forced selling by IG-only mandates and automatic removal from investment-grade indexes of the full ~$120B debt load. The 20-year bond already yields 8.1%, some 247 bps above equivalent Treasuries, while every Oracle bond maturing after 2044 now yields between 7.85% and 8.44%. Oracle's negative free cash flow (~$24B in FY2026) and $169B total debt make this the most acute credit-stress story among AI-capex issuers.
Bloomberg / allweatherfinance.com (citing Bloomberg and S&P Global Ratings) · 2026-09-25
Blue Owl Prices $1.1B Junk Bonds for CoreWeave Data-Center Projects at 9.25% — 270 bps Wide to Peers; S&P Rates BB-, Cites Single Speculative-Grade Tenant Risk
Blue Owl Capital affiliates priced $1.1B in high-yield bonds for CoreWeave-linked data-center projects at a 9.25% yield — approximately 270 bps wider than comparably rated paper — underscoring that the market is repricing AI-infrastructure credit when the anchor tenant is itself speculative-grade. S&P explicitly flagged 'exposure to a single speculative-grade tenant' as the key risk in its BB- rating report. This sets a visible market price on the tail risk embedded in GPU-collateralised, single-tenant data-center financings, directly relevant to the broader CoreWeave DDTL programme and any future issuance by data-center landlords dependent on CoreWeave revenues.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-07T06:01:17.