Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 08 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
223 bp
Avg level percentile
70 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 74 bp (+5 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9813.3382894-11.819+8.443+286.7*451–915126
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3212.3573887-11.229-1.446-12.8416–856306
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.466.7617899+2.979+4.068+40.566–182444
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.776.4414449-0.938-6.123+39.3*104–17775
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.775.798693+2.583+4.782+14.143–115444
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.735.456031-4.65-0.547-2.447–112444
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.525.655917-8.72-1.345-12.829–160444
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.855.545287-2.811-5.79+13.819–78444
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.595.464681-1.921-8.45+13.127–80444
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.365.363858-2.518-2.934-2.9*-9–51167
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Financial Times / Reuters · 2026-10-06
SpaceX Seeks $40 Billion Apollo-Led Financing to Buy Nvidia AI Chips — $10B in Bank Loans Plus $30B in Investment-Grade Debt
The single largest AI-capex debt raise reported to date for any issuer in this cohort. SpaceX (BBB-rated, five times more leveraged relative to profits than Alphabet) would nearly double its total debt to ~$80B if the deal closes. The $30B investment-grade bond tranche would be the largest single IG bond deal ever attempted for chip procurement, and with PIMCO among early lenders, it signals private-credit-to-IG crossover financing is becoming the dominant structure for AI capex that outstrips operating cash flow — SpaceX posted a $541M net loss in Q2 2026 on $18.4B of capex.
Benzinga / TradingView (citing bond-screener data as of Oct. 5, 2026) · 2026-10-05
Oracle Long-Dated Bonds Yield 8.43–8.45%, Trading Deep Below Par at BBB-/Baa2 — Secondary Spreads Signal Near-Junk Stress
Oracle's 2065 and 2066 bonds are trading at 73–81 cents on the dollar with YTMs above 8.4%, the highest among all IG hyperscalers. S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB- (one notch above junk) in July 2026 after it burned >$20B in free cash flow over four quarters; Moody's retains a negative outlook. Oracle has $169.1B of total debt vs. $67.2B of equity (71.6% debt-to-capital ratio) and plans to raise another ~$40B in FY2027. The secondary-market pricing now reflects near-speculative-grade credit risk despite the retained IG label.
Bloomberg / S&P Global Ratings · 2026-09-23
Blue Owl / CoreWeave-Tied Data Center Prices $1.1B Junk-Bond at 9.25% Yield — S&P Rates BB-, Flags Single-Tenant Concentration Risk
Five-year notes priced at 98.5 cents / 9.25% yield — ~270 bps wide of comparable-rated HY debt — marking the highest cost of AI data-center financing yet seen in the public bond market. S&P's BB- rating explicitly cited 'exposure to a single speculative-grade tenant' (CoreWeave itself, rated BB- IDR by Fitch with a 6.8x net leverage ratio). Total high-yield AI infrastructure issuance has now exceeded $30B in 2026, and this deal sets a new benchmark spread for CoreWeave-backed collateral, with direct read-across to Digital Realty and Equinix as competing single-tenant data-center credit structures.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-08T06:00:59.