Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 09 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
226 bp
Avg level percentile
73 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
1 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 75 bp (+6 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9813.4084097+11.872+7.642+298.5*451–915127
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3112.3974290+4.758+3.650-8.1416–856307
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.466.87189100+10.997+20.196+51.466–189445
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.766.5215284+8.792+6.066+48.0*104–17776
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.765.778591-1.327+3.075+12.843–115445
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.735.436028-0.937-2.328-3.347–112445
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.525.635613-2.419-4.825-15.229–160445
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.855.555487+1.272+0.658+15.019–78445
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.595.474782+0.962-2.923+14.027–80445
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.355.363858+0.048-2.434-2.9*-9–51168
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

247 Wall St. · 2026-10-08
SpaceX Plans $40 Billion AI Chip Debt Package — $10B Bank Loans + $30B Investment-Grade Bonds — as Oracle and Broadcom Queue Simultaneously
SpaceX would borrow entirely in its own name at its BBB/Baa1 rating to fund Nvidia chip purchases, with closing expected in 2027. Its total debt already reached ~$39.7B in June 2026, up from $30.6B a quarter earlier. The simultaneous queue of SpaceX, Oracle, and Broadcom competing for investment-grade debt capacity at the same time is a fresh stress test for the AI-capex credit market.
Benzinga / TradingView · 2026-10-05
Oracle and SpaceX Bonds Now Highest-Yielding Among Hyperscalers, Both Above 7.5% YTM, as 121 AI-Giant Bonds Breach 6% Yield
As of October 5, Oracle's 2066 bond yields 8.45% and SpaceX's 2046 bond yields 7.84% — both well above the BBB-rated average — while Oracle carries $169.1B in total debt against just $67.2B of equity (71.6% debt-to-equity). The 10-year Treasury at 5.27% and the 30-year at 5.63% (up ~39bps in a month) are mechanically pushing all AI-capex bond yields higher, flagging growing credit-market stress for the most leveraged issuers.
Benzinga · 2026-10-08
SpaceX Is a Test of How Much Debt the AI Boom Can Absorb — $40B Financing Plan Highlights Chip-Obsolescence Risk on Long-Dated Bonds
SpaceX's $38.4B debt load (June 2026) already reflects its June $25B bond deal at a weighted average rate of 5.855%. The new $40B package would fund Nvidia chips whose useful life (2-4 years) is far shorter than the bonds' average 11.7-year maturity, creating a structural asset-liability mismatch that credit analysts flag as a novel risk category for investment-grade AI-capex issuers.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-09T06:00:53.