Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 10 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
240 bp
Avg level percentile
76 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
2 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 77 bp (+7 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9713.9589999+58.698+50.285+357.1*451–915128
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3113.0280898+66.0100+79.592+57.9416–856308
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.456.89195100+6.392+21.997+57.766–195446
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.766.5215592+3.071+4.158+51.0*104–17777
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.765.738389-1.624-1.140+11.243–115446
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.515.636124+4.894-13.82-10.429–160446
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.725.426031+0.864-1.832-2.547–112446
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.855.485084-3.77+5.387+11.319–78446
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.595.434884+0.659-32.20+14.627–80446
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.355.333961+0.457-3.130-2.5*-9–51169
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

The Wall Street Journal (Oracle/Broadcom) & Financial Times (SpaceX), corroborated by Data Center Dynamics · 2026-10-08
Oracle, Broadcom and SpaceX Seek Blockbuster Private Debt Deals to Buy AI Chips — WSJ/FT
Oracle is in talks with Apollo Global Management and Goldman Sachs to arrange off-balance-sheet chip financing (structured so debt sits in a special-purpose vehicle, not on Oracle's own books — critical given its 2066 bond already yields ~8.45%). SpaceX is separately pursuing ~$40B comprising ~$10B bank loans and ~$30B investment-grade bonds to buy Nvidia chips, with Apollo expected to lead and PIMCO among anchor investors. Both deals signal that public bond markets are at capacity for AI-capex financing, forcing a structural pivot to private credit — a watershed credit-market stress indicator for the sector.
Yahoo Finance / Reuters, citing WSJ report · 2026-10-08
Oracle Stock Falls 5% as Market Reacts to New Debt-for-Chips Plan and OpenAI Revenue Miss
Oracle shares fell 5% after the WSJ reported yet another large off-balance-sheet debt structure, compounding existing credit concerns: the company carries $169.1B of total debt against only $67.2B of equity (71.6% debt-to-equity), its 2066 bond trades at ~81 cents on the dollar yielding 8.45%, and capex hit $28.5B in a single quarter (Q1 FY27). The stock is down ~30% YTD. The combination of a stretched balance sheet, rising yields on existing paper, and a new round of chip-financing debt makes Oracle the most acute credit-stress name among the listed issuers.
Benzinga / TradingView Bond Screener, data as of Oct. 5, 2026 · 2026-10-05
SpaceX Joins Oracle Above 7.5% Yield as 121 Hyperscaler Bonds Now Pay Over 6% — Credit-Market Stress Broadening
As of Oct. 5, TradingView's bond screener shows 121 U.S.-listed bonds from AI-capex issuers (Oracle, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, SpaceX) yielding above 6% to maturity — with Oracle and SpaceX the only two above 7.5%. SpaceX's 2046 bond (6.60%) yields 7.84% and its 2056 bond (6.65%) yields 7.67%, reflecting the market's pricing of its $39.7B debt load and the proposed $40B new chip-financing. The 10-year Treasury at 5.27% means IG spreads are widening across the cohort, a structural signal that the bond market's appetite for AI-infrastructure paper is tightening materially.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-10T06:01:37.