Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 13 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
240 bp
Avg level percentile
74 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
3 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 76 bp (+7 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9714.0090399+4.454+73.093+361.5*451–915129
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3013.0380998+0.750+81.493+58.6416–856309
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.456.90195100+0.050+15.192+57.766–195447
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.756.5215692+0.551+4.761+51.5*104–17778
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.755.788894+4.796-17.51+15.943–115447
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.725.496868+7.298-5.212+4.747–112447
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.515.656330+1.978+2.066-8.529–160447
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.585.444884+0.048-3.618+14.627–80447
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.345.374377+4.292+3.174+1.7*-9–51170
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.845.27291-20.90-25.30-9.619–78447
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Wall Street Journal / Yahoo Finance / TIKR · 2026-10-08
Oracle in Talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs for Off-Balance-Sheet Chip Financing as Debt Tops $169 Billion
Oracle—already carrying >$160B in long-term debt (ranked 5th-largest US corporate bond issuer) with capex hitting $28.5B in a single quarter and its 2066 bond yielding 8.45%—is now pursuing an off-balance-sheet chip-leasing structure with Apollo/Goldman to avoid further overleveraging its BBB/Baa2-rated (negative outlook) balance sheet. The deal, targeting a 1-gigawatt data centre, signals that traditional public bond markets are approaching a ceiling for the most stretched AI-capex borrowers.
Financial Times / Reuters / Bloomberg · 2026-10-08
SpaceX Seeks $40 Billion in Bank Loans and Investment-Grade Bonds to Buy Nvidia AI Chips, Led by Apollo with PIMCO Among Lenders
SpaceX would carry the full $40B on its own balance sheet—$10B in bank loans plus $30B in investment-grade bonds—at a time when its existing debt already reached $39.7B as of June 2026 (up from $30.6B one quarter earlier) and its longest bonds already yield 7.84%. As the only AI-capex borrower in this wave to borrow in its own name rather than through a bankruptcy-remote SPV, SpaceX becomes the clearest test of how much on-balance-sheet AI-infrastructure debt credit markets will absorb.
J-Stock AI (citing Reuters/BNP Paribas data) / Alphabet IR (10-Q) · 2026-10-11
Alphabet Caps Dollar Bond Issuance at Twice a Year as 10-Year Treasury Hits 5.34%, Raising Data-Centre Funding-Cost Stress
Alphabet's treasury team formally guided investors to expect only two USD bond deals per year after its record $25B August offering, while the Oct. 7 10-year Treasury auction pushed benchmark yields to 5.34%—the highest since 2002—and data-centre funding costs to ~6.95%. With hyperscaler spreads already widening (2–4yr bonds now +40bp vs +30bp in 2025; 20yr+ at +118bp), Alphabet's self-imposed issuance cap is the clearest signal yet that AI-capex borrowers are managing bond-market indigestion risk in real time.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-13T06:01:01.