Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 14 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
236 bp
Avg level percentile
65 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
1 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 72 bp (+3 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9614.0090098-3.037+60.086+358.5*451–915130
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3013.0380697-3.341+56.986+55.3416–856310
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.446.8418799-8.12+12.089+49.666–195448
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.756.5215386-3.121+8.271+48.4*104–17779
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.755.788490-3.49+0.958+12.543–115448
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.715.496446-4.08-1.535+0.747–112448
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.505.656121-2.518-6.916-11.029–160448
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.575.444578-2.912-3.320+11.727–80448
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.345.313437-9.33-7.211-7.6*-9–51171
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG no trade 1d4.835.27291+0.051-26.20-9.619–78448
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Wall Street Journal / TIKR (Oct 8–13, 2026) · 2026-10-13
Oracle in Talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs on Off-Balance-Sheet AI Chip Financing as Debt Tops $169 Billion
Oracle is attempting to route its next wave of NVIDIA chip purchases through a separately-funded SPV so the debt lands off its balance sheet — a direct response to its 8.45% secondary market yield, $169B in total debt, and negative free cash flow of $28.7B over the last four quarters. The structure (investors buy chips, lease back to Oracle) would shield its Baa2/BBB-negative ratings from further deterioration, but it signals the company can no longer absorb capex on its own balance sheet. If talks fail or pricing is punitive, a rating downgrade to sub-investment-grade becomes a live risk before its Dec 14 earnings.
Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / GlobalDataCenterHub (Oct 7–14, 2026) · 2026-10-14
SpaceX Seeking ~$40 Billion Debt Package for NVIDIA Chips — $10B Bank Loans + $30B Investment-Grade Bonds, Apollo to Lead
SpaceX's proposed $40B financing — the largest single AI chip debt package yet by a non-hyperscaler — would combine bank loans and public investment-grade bonds with Apollo as lead arranger and PIMCO among buyers. SpaceX bonds already yield 7.67–7.84% in secondary markets, the second-highest after Oracle. The deal is expected to close in 2027, but its pricing will set a critical market benchmark for BBB-rated AI infrastructure borrowers. If cut or widened, it would pressure Oracle's parallel financing talks and signal credit-market saturation.
Benzinga / TradingView Bond Screener (Oct 5–8, 2026) · 2026-10-08
121 AI-Capex Bonds Now Yield Above 6%; Oracle and SpaceX Alone Exceed 7.5% as 30-Year Treasury Hits 5.63%
A TradingView screen of U.S.-listed AI-capex issuer bonds as of Oct 5 shows 121 bonds yielding above 6%, with Oracle's 40-year paper priced at only 81.70 cents (YTM 8.45%) and SpaceX 2046s at 87.60 cents (YTM 7.84%) — both deeply distressed relative to par. The 30-year risk-free rate at 5.63% (up ~39 bps in a month) is the mechanical driver, but Oracle's 71.6% debt-to-equity ratio and $169B total debt stack mean its spread widening is also credit-specific. This secondary-market stress directly raises new-issue concessions for any forthcoming Oracle or SpaceX primary deals.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-14T06:01:07.