Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 16 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
277 bp
Avg level percentile
81 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
4 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 84 bp (+14 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
47617488Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9615.201022100+51.896+182.399+480.8*451–1022132
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3015.081011100+131.0100+268.8100+260.7416–1011312
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.447.16219100+11.598+30.699+82.066–219450
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.746.5215386-1.135+1.049+49.0*104–17781
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.755.788489-1.031-0.745+12.143–115450
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.505.747243+10.698+15.898+0.629–160450
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.715.526342+7.097+3.483+0.147–112450
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.835.565891+1.979+3.882+18.819–78450
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.575.485087-1.033+2.874+16.827–80450
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.335.374069+0.456+1.865-1.1*-9–51173
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNBC / Reuters (via BNN Bloomberg, SRN News, AOL/Reuters) · 2026-10-15
CoreWeave CDS Hits ~1,000 bps and 2031 Bond Yields Top 16% as Credit Stress Reaches Distress Levels
CoreWeave's 5-year CDS spread surged above 1,140 bps (settling near 1,038 bps, +164% YoY), implying a ~63% five-year default probability per Reuters. Its 9.75% 2031 notes yielded 15.78% on Tradeweb. With ~$51B in total debt and obligations, the bonds trade at roughly 78–79 cents on the dollar—firmly in distressed territory. The selloff contagioned into Oracle (-9%) and the broader AI-capex equity complex, raising systemic questions about the debt-funded data-center buildout model.
CNBC (citing LSEG data, dated Oct 13–14, 2026) · 2026-10-14
Hyperscaler Bond Issuance Surpasses $228 Billion YTD as AI Debt Binge More Than Doubles 2025 Full-Year Total
As of Oct. 13, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle together have issued more than $228 billion in bonds in 2026—more than double the full-year 2025 amount—per LSEG data cited by CNBC. Goldman Sachs projects the five hyperscalers (adding Microsoft) could reach $250B for the full year and $400B in 2027. The supply surge has pushed median spreads wider across all tenors and is now large enough to distort the broader investment-grade credit market, competing with Treasury supply for duration demand.
Reuters / Financial Times (carried by lufkindailynews.com Reuters wire, Oct 15, 2026) · 2026-10-15
CoreWeave Co-Founder Tells FT Company Is Seeking Investment-Grade Rating to Unlock 'Unlimited' Capital; CEO Calls Market Reaction 'Irrational' in Internal Memo
With its bonds in distress and CDS implying a >60% default probability, CoreWeave co-founder Brannin McBee told the FT the company is pursuing an investment-grade rating on its chip-backed loans to access life-insurer and pension capital—yet current junk pricing near 16% makes that path extremely difficult. Simultaneously, CEO Mike Intrator's internal memo (seen by Reuters) defending the $104B backlog signals management is battling a rapidly deteriorating credit narrative. The outcome matters for the entire AI-capex financing complex: if CoreWeave cannot re-rate upward, the GPU-collateralized lending model that underpins much of the neocloud sector faces a structural funding crisis.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-16T06:01:09.