Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 17 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
261 bp
Avg level percentile
71 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
3 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 77 bp (+8 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
47617488Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9614.8599699-26.54+97.297+454.3*451–1022133
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2914.08919100-92.40+110.496+168.3416–1011313
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.447.10222100+2.577+26.898+84.566–222451
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.746.4715793+4.076+2.051+53.0*104–17782
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.745.678081-3.68-2.727+8.543–115451
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.495.596636-6.74+4.380-6.129–160451
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.575.395088+0.558+2.773+17.327–80451
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.715.26440-18.60-16.00-18.544–112451
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.335.294070+0.456+1.865-0.7*-9–51174
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.835.304042-18.01-10.52+0.819–78451
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Reuters (via Investing.com / US News) · 2026-10-15
CoreWeave's Slump Puts Spotlight on Debt Behind AI Boom — Bonds Fall to Distressed Levels, CDS Hits Record ~1,200 bps
CoreWeave's ~$50 bn debt pile — carrying a junk B/B+ rating from S&P and Fitch — saw unsecured bonds fall below 80 cents on the dollar and yields on its 2031 bonds surge past 16%, the threshold typically associated with distress. CDS spreads hit a record ~1,200 bps. With $4.4 bn maturing by end-2026 and $6.2 bn in 2027, a near-term refinancing crunch is live. The sell-off contagioned into Oracle, Alphabet and broader AI cloud equities, making this the single most systemically important credit event of the week for AI-capex financing.
Reuters (via Investing.com) · 2026-10-16
Private Credit Roundup: CoreWeave's Debt Stress Tests Private Credit's AI Financing Boom
Reuters' weekly private-credit wrap frames CoreWeave's bond dislocation as the clearest market test yet of private credit's AI infrastructure thesis. The piece reveals that lenders are demanding sharply higher compensation for projects further from completion, and that CoreWeave's special-purpose-vehicle structures (backed by GPU collateral and long-term Microsoft/OpenAI/Meta contracts) are now under scrutiny. This directly affects how Equinix, Digital Realty, and other data-centre operators will price future private-credit raises.
Deutsche Bank / Neo Reports Daily AI Investment Brief (citing Reuters/Bloomberg data) · 2026-10-16
Oracle's 5Y CDS Widens +36 bps in Two Sessions to 288 bps Amid Junk-Downgrade Fears; Shares Drop ~9%
Deutsche Bank's cross-issuer credit mapping flagged Oracle (BBB / negative outlook) as 'the key canary': a downgrade to junk would force investment-grade-constrained funds to dump what would be a 'fallen angel' of unprecedented size, given Oracle's $169 bn total debt and 71.6% debt-to-capital ratio. Oracle shares fell ~9% on Oct. 14 in sympathy with the CoreWeave sell-off, and its 6.25% 2032 bond yield jumped to 7.24%. Combined with $228 bn+ in hyperscaler bond issuance already in 2026 (per LSEG), an Oracle credit deterioration would represent the highest-magnitude single-name event in AI-capex credit markets.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-17T06:01:34.