Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 21 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
281 bp
Avg level percentile
84 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
8 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 90 bp (+21 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
47637894Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9414.96100499-42.42+104.296+462.7*451–1047135
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2814.8699599-36.35+189.099+244.3416–1031315
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.427.45255100+19.5100+67.9100+117.566–255453
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.736.73181100+13.799+28.196+76.5*104–18184
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.735.738692+2.886+1.363+13.843–115453
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.485.646841-2.817+7.390-3.729–160453
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.695.436135-0.152-2.328-1.644–112453
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.825.515992-1.427+29.799+20.119–78453
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.565.475696+6.298+10.997+22.627–80453
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.325.354481+3.690+10.794+3.1*-9–51176
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNN · 2026-10-20
CoreWeave Debt Drama Roils Wall Street as Bonds Trade Near Distress; CNN Reports $52B in Debt and Lease Liabilities
CNN's Oct 20 report crystallises the credit-market stress event of the week: CoreWeave's bonds yielding ~15% (distressed territory) and the company carrying ~$52B in combined debt and lease obligations. The piece frames CoreWeave as a systemic bellwether — if bond investors lose appetite for AI infrastructure debt here, the broader data-centre financing wave (which now funds much of US AI capex) could stall, with knock-on risk to Digital Realty, Equinix, and hyperscaler supply chains.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-20
Are Concerns Over CoreWeave's Debt Overblown? JPMorgan Says Business Model Remains Sound Despite 20% Weekly Stock Plunge
Published Oct 20, this piece presents the bull case from JPMorgan analysts who argue CoreWeave's mid-teens unlevered IRR on five-year contracts exceeds its 9–11% blended cost of capital — a direct rebuttal to the credit-distress narrative. For bond investors and rating agencies, JPMorgan's contract-cash-flow analysis is a key data point on whether the B+/junk-rated neocloud can service ~$35.6B in debt plus $16.3B in operating-lease liabilities, making it essential context for any rating action or secondary-market repricing.
CNBC (via multiple aggregators including suaragarut.id carrying CNBC data) · 2026-10-19
AI Stocks Rebound but Credit Worries Linger: CoreWeave CDS at ~1,082 bps, Oracle 5-Year CDS at 315 bps — Both Remain Elevated on Oct 19
Dated Oct 19 2026, this report (sourcing CNBC data) confirms that despite an equity rebound, credit markets have not stood down: CoreWeave's 5-year CDS remains ~1,082 bps (above the 1,000 bp distress threshold) and Oracle's 5-year CDS sits at 315 bps — up 311% year-on-year. Oracle's ~$132B net debt and BBB- S&P rating (one notch above junk) make it the investment-grade 'canary' for AI capex financing stress. Any further CDS widening raises the probability of a Moody's negative action that would force index-mandated selling across the $228B+ hyperscaler bond complex.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-21T06:01:35.