Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 24 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
302 bp
Avg level percentile
85 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
4 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 94 bp (+25 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9415.581082100+72.299+59.482+540.2*451–1082137
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2715.311054100+66.099+43.480+304.1416–1054317
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.427.42267100+11.497+47.8100+129.866–267455
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.726.99222100+31.9100+69.1100+118.1*104–22286
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.725.588591+1.064+1.161+13.243–115455
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.485.547446+1.066+1.763+2.329–160455
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.815.426597+8.097+7.492+26.219–78455
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.555.406499+13.0100+13.897+30.627–80455
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.695.306133+10.399-2.230-2.144–112455
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.315.214686+4.090+5.583+4.4*-9–51178
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg (reported by Startup Fortune, Oct 23 2026) · 2026-10-23
Banks including JPMorgan and MUFG spend 6+ months trying to offload $38B Oracle data-center construction debt at a discount
Primary-market distribution failure on $38B of Oracle-leased data-center construction loans—with banks now discounting to non-bank buyers—signals that AI capex debt supply has materially overwhelmed investor appetite. Combined with Oracle's S&P BBB- rating (one notch above junk) and 5-year CDS at ~151 bps (2009 highs), this is the clearest live stress signal in investment-grade AI credit.
CNBC, Oct 21 2026 · 2026-10-21
CoreWeave market confidence erodes as bond yields hold ~15%, stock down 36% in October; Barclays credit analyst flags 'decidedly negative' AI bond sentiment
CoreWeave's 9.75% 2031 bonds yield ~15%, CDS spreads remain above 1,000 bps (distressed territory), and the company faces $20.7B in debt maturities through 2030 with deeply negative free cash flow. This is the highest-profile junk-rated AI-capex issuer under active credit stress, with refinancing risk now a consensus concern across Barclays, HSBC, and Janus Henderson.
CNBC Markets Live Blog (Goldman Sachs research note), Oct 23 2026 · 2026-10-23
Goldman Sachs flags Oracle's 'intense capex investment cycle and financing needs' ahead of investor day; outlines $20B debt issuance expected in 2H FY27
Goldman's published framework—$20–25B in customer prepayments, ~$20B ATM equity already executed, and ~$20B more debt expected in 2H FY27—quantifies Oracle's near-term capital markets dependency at a moment when its bonds already yield 8%+ and banks cannot distribute its existing construction debt. Any pricing disappointment on the upcoming debt tranche risks a further rating downgrade to junk.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-24T06:00:57.