Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 27 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
298 bp
Avg level percentile
87 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
7 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 95 bp (+25 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9315.29104999-33.14+52.880+507.1*451–1082138
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2715.201040100-14.422+121.496+289.7416–1054318
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.417.38259100-8.32+37.099+121.566–267456
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.717.07226100+4.173+69.2100+122.2*104–22687
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.725.638693+1.165+5.889+14.343–115456
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.805.5776100+11.098+36.4100+37.219–78456
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.475.567243-1.727+6.788+0.629–160456
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.685.356240+1.673+18.099-0.544–112456
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.545.385896-5.63+7.792+25.027–80456
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.305.294997+3.890+8.992+8.2*-9–51179
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNBC · 2026-10-21
CoreWeave's Market Confidence Erodes as Bond Yields Spike to ~15% and Stock Sinks 36% in October
CoreWeave's unsecured bonds are yielding ~15% and its 5-year CDS has blown out to distressed levels (>1,100 bps), with ~$20.7B of debt maturing through 2030. CNBC reports the high-yield market is effectively on hold until after the midterm elections. This is the sharpest credit-stress signal in the AI-capex financing complex, raising systemic questions about the entire neocloud funding model and contagion risk to data-center REITs and hyperscaler spreads.
CNBC (Stock Market Live, Oct 22–23 2026) · 2026-10-22
Goldman Sachs Flags Oracle's 'Intense Capex Investment Cycle and Financing Needs' as Key Risk Ahead of Investor Day
With Oracle already cut to BBB- (S&P, July 9) and carrying a Moody's Negative outlook — one notch away from a potential junk designation — Goldman Sachs's explicit flagging of 'intense capex investment cycle and financing needs' as a key risk, published within 48h of today, underscores that the Street expects further rating pressure and wider spreads. A Moody's downgrade to Ba1 would trigger forced selling by investment-grade-only funds across Oracle's ~$169B debt stack.
Digital Realty IR / SEC Form 8-K (Exhibit 99.1) · 2026-10-06
Digital Realty Closes CHF 510 Million Three-Tranche Green Swiss Bond Offering via Finance Subsidiary
Digital Realty priced CHF225M (2029), CHF185M (2032) and CHF100M (2036) senior unsecured Swiss franc bonds — proceeds earmarked under its Green Bond Framework for data-center development and redevelopment. The Swiss franc issuance diversifies DLR's funding currency away from USD at a time of spread widening in the US IG market, and signals continued capital market access for investment-grade data-center REITs even as AI-capex credit stress rises. This is the most recent confirmed bond issuance from any issuer in the target universe per SEC filings.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-27T06:01:52.