Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 28 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
294 bp
Avg level percentile
84 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
3 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 94 bp (+25 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025May 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9315.38105699+6.759+8.741+513.8*451–1082139
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2615.02101999-20.913-11.835+268.8416–1054319
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.417.51270100+10.996+34.498+132.466–270457
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.716.9321198-15.90+43.598+106.3*104–22688
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.715.658590-1.525+1.867+12.843–115457
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.805.5672100-3.48+12.397+33.819–78457
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.465.587244+0.259+1.762+0.829–160457
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.675.356031-2.118-1.140-2.644–112457
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.545.375493-3.79+4.985+21.327–80457
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.305.284685-3.412+5.382+4.8*-9–51180
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNBC / Reuters / Bloomberg (Taipei Times) / Newsquawk · 2026-10-26
SpaceX Closes $40 Billion GPU Debt Deal via Apollo-Led Off-Balance-Sheet Entity; Musk Warns Debt Markets Have 'Almost Entirely Shut Off' for AI-Only Neoclouds
Largest single AI-capex debt commitment in the current cycle. SpaceX signed a binding commitment with an Apollo-managed entity for ~$40 billion in callable GPU-backed bonds and loans to fund Nvidia chip deliveries expected in Q1-Q2 2027. Bloomberg sources said pricing talks were still ongoing despite Musk's 'closed' announcement, and Semafor reported the lowest-rated tranche was expected to price above 8.3% — more than 100 bps above existing SpaceX bonds — exposing how far AI credit costs have risen. Musk simultaneously warned that 'debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centres,' a direct signal of systemic credit tightening across the neocloud sector.
CNBC · 2026-10-27
AI Debt Fears Ease Ahead of Alphabet and Amazon Earnings as Meta Opts for Equity Over Bonds; CDS Spreads Remain Up 129-177% YTD
Published 27 Oct 2026, this CNBC credit-markets analysis flags that Meta's decision to launch a $95 billion equity offering — rather than another large bond deal — removed an immediate supply overhang and directly tightened AI-related CDS spreads, with Nuveen's head of IG credit calling the bond-deal absence 'a direct catalyst for spread tightening.' However, CDS on Meta (+177% YTD) and Amazon (+129% YTD) remain sharply wider on the year. Alphabet and Amazon report earnings today (28 Oct), and analysts expect both to post negative free cash flow again (Alphabet: -$2.3 billion on $55.2 billion capex; Amazon: -$9.9 billion on $58.7 billion capex). Any upside capex surprise or new bond issuance signal could reignite credit-market stress across the entire hyperscaler complex.
CNBC / Bloomberg / InsiderFinance.io · 2026-10-20
CoreWeave Bonds Still Deeply Distressed at ~16% Yield; $51.6 Billion Debt Load and $4.4 Billion Due by End-2026 Keep CDS Near Record Levels
Although the peak CDS spike (1,194.5 bps, implying >60% five-year default probability) occurred on 15 Oct, CoreWeave's credit stress remained a live market story through 20-21 Oct per CNBC and InsiderFinance, with the 9.75% 2031 bonds still yielding ~16% — a >70% jump since April issuance — and S&P/Fitch holding the issuer at B/B+. CoreWeave carries ~$51.6 billion in total debt and obligations with ~$4.4 billion due by year-end 2026 and ~$6.2 billion in 2027, while Q2 net interest expense of ~$640 million already equalled ~25% of revenue. Musk's 26 Oct warning that debt markets are shutting out AI-only compute firms directly references the CoreWeave stress episode as the sector's clearest canary, making ongoing monitoring of its refinancing risk essential for all AI-capex credit investors.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-28T06:01:58.