Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 29 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
280 bp
Avg level percentile
84 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
1 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 89 bp (+20 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025Jun 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9214.81100195-54.91-3.831+458.9*451–1082140
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2614.5697498-44.93-20.425+223.9416–1054320
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.407.1823799-32.50-17.62+99.966–270458
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.716.8120097-10.62+19.283+95.7*104–22689
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.715.638387-1.427-2.429+11.443–115458
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.465.597547+2.783+7.290+3.529–160458
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.795.466597-7.42+6.389+26.419–78458
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.675.396240+2.279+1.265-0.444–112458
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.535.365594+0.355-1.038+21.627–80458
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.305.274686+0.150+1.863+4.9*-9–51181
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

SpaceX IR / SEC Form 8-K; confirmed by Bloomberg, TechCrunch · 2026-10-26
SpaceX Locks In $40 Billion GPU Finance Lease With Apollo — Largest Committed GPU Financing Ever
SpaceX disclosed via SEC 8-K that on Oct. 24 it entered a binding commitment for an ~$40 billion master finance lease with an Apollo Global Management-managed entity to acquire NVIDIA Vera Rubin GPU pods and lease them for data-center deployment — described by the company as the largest committed GPU financing in history. PIMCO has already anchored ~$4 billion of the package. The off-balance-sheet lease structure (5–5.25-year terms, fixed rate TBD at pricing) adds massively to SpaceX's effective leverage at a moment when its BBB-rated bonds already yield above 7.5%, raising credit-market questions about how a company whose Starlink cash flows are insufficient to self-fund AI capex will service $40 billion in new obligations.
CNBC (Oct. 27, 2026) · 2026-10-27
AI Debt Fears Ease Ahead of Hyperscaler Earnings, But Meta CDS Spreads Still +177% YTD and Amazon +129%; Oracle's BBB- Rating and $117B Debt in Focus
One day before earnings from Amazon and Alphabet, CNBC's credit-markets piece (citing CreditSights analyst Jordan Chalfin and S&P Global) shows AI-capex CDS stress has moderated but remains extreme: Meta's CDS spread is still 177% wider YTD and Amazon's 129% wider, reflecting negative free cash flow across the sector. S&P Global projects hyperscalers will generate negative free operating cash flow in 2026–2027. Oracle — carrying $117 billion in long-term debt at the lowest investment-grade rating (BBB- / S&P) — is flagged as the single most critical credit-market event of earnings season, with analysts watching capex guidance and any new debt-issuance signals.
SSBCrack News citing Oracle IR / S&P Global (Oct. 28, 2026) · 2026-10-28
Oracle Investor Day Oct. 29: Credit Market On Edge Over $167B Debt, Negative FCF, and BBB- Rating One Notch Above Junk
With Oracle's Investor Day scheduled for Oct. 29, a same-day (Oct. 28) report highlights that S&P's July downgrade to BBB- — driven by $167 billion in debt, a projected negative FCF of $42 billion in FY2027, and extreme OpenAI customer-concentration risk — remains unresolved. Oracle's five-year CDS has traded near 2008-crisis highs (~203 bps), Moody's retains a negative outlook (implying a potential further downgrade to junk), and the company must raise ~$40 billion in new debt and equity in FY2027 just to fund its AI data-center buildout. Any softening of capex guidance or new financing announcement at Investor Day will be the primary credit-market catalyst of the week.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-29T06:01:44.