Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 30 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
261 bp
Avg level percentile
77 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
2 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 82 bp (+13 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025Jun 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9214.2293993-61.51-70.63+397.4*451–1082141
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2613.7188897-86.30-100.53+137.6416–1054321
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.406.9721598-22.50-41.00+77.466–270459
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.716.9120897+8.186+17.681+103.8*104–22690
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.715.648286-0.836-1.636+10.643–115459
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.465.566841-6.74-4.526-3.229–160459
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.795.486496-1.428+6.890+25.019–78459
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.675.335822-4.76+7.394-5.144–112459
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.535.324984-5.83-1.830+15.827–80459
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.305.213853-8.14-3.624-3.2*-9–51182
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg (reported via Reuters, FA-Mag, Benzinga, Business Recorder) · 2026-10-29
Microsoft Eyes At Least $25 Billion US Bond Sale — First Domestic High-Grade Deal Since 2017
Microsoft (AAA/AAA at S&P/Moody's) is returning to the US investment-grade bond market for the first time in over nine years, pricing up to 10 tranches from 2-year to 40-year maturities to fund AI data-center capex that hit $45.2bn in a single quarter. The 40-year tranche is guided at T+135bp — a meaningful concession for a top-rated issuer — and the deal is an immediate litmus test for investor appetite after AI-capex bond supply has already topped $350bn in 2026 from the five major hyperscalers combined.
Goldman Sachs Research / Blockspace / Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-29
Goldman Sachs Quantifies CoreWeave's Incremental Debt Need at $19.5bn–$38bn; Projects Total Debt Could Hit $100bn by 2028
In a note published October 29, Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy/$106 target on CoreWeave (CRWV) and sized the company's incremental financing need at $19.5bn–$38bn to serve its $129bn backlog and 4.2 GW of committed power. The bank also projects CoreWeave's total debt and lease load could approach $100bn by 2028 — double today's ~$52bn — placing the funding question at the center of AI-credit risk. This comes as CoreWeave's 9.75% 2031 bonds still yield ~16% and its 5-year CDS spread remains above 1,000bp, the threshold widely used to define credit distress.
S&P Global Ratings (reported via Cryptonomist / Bloomberg context in search results) · 2026-10-29
S&P Cuts Oracle Credit Rating to Near-Junk as $43bn FY2026 Debt Issuance and $95bn FY2027 Capex Forecast Stress Balance Sheet
Concurrent with the Microsoft bond pricing, market commentary dated October 29 confirmed that S&P cut Oracle's credit rating to just one notch above junk status following the company's $43bn in FY2026 debt issuance and guidance of up to $95bn in FY2027 capex. Oracle already carries $169bn in total debt at a 71.6% debt-to-assets ratio — the highest leverage among all hyperscalers — and its 6.85% 2066 bond now yields 8.45%, the widest spread in the AI-capex bond universe. The downgrade tightens Oracle's access to investment-grade benchmarks and raises financing costs for its 1-gigawatt Stargate/OpenAI data-center program.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-30T06:01:41.