Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 31 Oct 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
276 bp
Avg level percentile
86 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 91 bp (+22 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466482100Dec 2025Jun 2026Oct 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9214.3796193+22.285-120.61+419.6*451–1082142
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2514.1193698+48.096-118.50+185.6416–1054322
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.407.1724199+26.5100-25.91+103.966–270460
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.706.9421898+10.093-4.328+113.8*104–22691
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.705.628894+5.597+2.975+16.143–115460
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.465.567649+7.596+2.065+4.329–160460
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.795.436698+2.685+1.463+27.619–78460
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.675.326451+6.596+3.583+1.444–112460
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.535.325696+7.598-7.37+23.327–80460
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.295.244889+9.796+2.167+6.5*-9–51183
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNBC · 2026-10-27
Oracle Investor Day in Focus as Credit Markets Watch $117B Debt Load at Lowest Investment-Grade Rating
Oracle has issued $117 billion in long-term debt and clings to a BBB- rating from S&P — the lowest investment-grade rung above junk. Its Investor Day disclosures on capex and debt plans are the single most watched credit event in investment-grade tech this week; CreditSights calls it the most stressed IG tech credit, trading more like a high-yield name. Any negative capex surprise or new bond signal could trigger rating-agency action and fresh spread widening across the entire AI credit complex.
CNBC · 2026-10-27
Meta's $95 Billion Equity Offering Calms AI Credit Markets After Negative Free Cash Flow Widens CDS Spreads
Meta's Q3 negative free cash flow pushed its five-year CDS spreads materially wider and investors braced for a large follow-on bond deal. When Meta instead announced a $95 billion equity offering, the absence of new bond supply acted as a direct catalyst for AI-related spread tightening across the sector. Meta's CDS spread remains ~177% wider year-to-date, illustrating the persistent credit-market unease around capex-heavy hyperscalers even after the immediate relief.
Blockspace (citing Goldman Sachs research note, Oct 29 2026) · 2026-10-29
Goldman Sachs Sizes CoreWeave's New Debt Need at $20–$38 Billion, Flags Financing as Key Risk After Buy Upgrade
Goldman's Oct 29 note quantifies CoreWeave's incremental financing requirement at $20–$23B base case (up to $38B bear case) to service its $129B backlog, directly after the stock fell 15.5% on Oct 14 as its 2031/2032 bond yields neared 15% and 5-year CDS topped 1,140 bps. With Bernstein estimating $85B of additional need and the junk bond market increasingly frozen to AI neoclouds, Goldman's sizing of the funding gap — and its identification of 'raising financing' as the top risk — is the most precise public assessment of CoreWeave's credit cliff and has direct read-across to data-center lenders and GPU-collateralised debt markets.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-10-31T06:00:53.