Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 03 Nov 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
294 bp
Avg level percentile
87 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
2 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 96 bp (+27 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
466483101Dec 2025Jun 2026Nov 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9114.97102897+67.298-20.319+486.8*451–1082143
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2514.6699898+62.598-41.615+248.1416–1054323
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.397.1724999+7.693-10.09+111.566–270461
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.707.06238100+19.899+11.471+133.6*104–23892
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.705.609397+5.597+7.393+21.643–115461
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.455.507751+1.167+4.881+5.429–160461
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.785.427299+6.196-3.521+33.719–78461
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.525.316298+6.097+4.382+29.327–80461
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.665.216029-4.47-2.526-3.044–112461
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.285.2758100+10.796+9.092+17.2*-9–58184
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance / 247WallSt (citing Bloomberg and Fitch statement) · 2026-11-02
Oracle launches $10 billion bond sale alongside $10 billion equity offering to fund AI data-centre buildout; Fitch affirms BBB, says no further material capital raise expected over rating horizon
Oracle (BBB-, S&P; BBB Fitch) exhausted its entire debt-and-equity fundraising capacity to fiscal-2030 in a single day. Fitch's 'no further material capital' caveat means Oracle has no ratings headroom left; any capex overrun risks a junk downgrade that would force IG-only investors into forced sales and widen spreads across the AI-capex credit complex. Oracle's 2066 bonds already yield ~8.4%, versus ~6.1% for Apple/Microsoft comparables, underscoring near-junk market pricing despite the official rating.
Briefs.co (citing Bloomberg); FourWeekMBA (citing Bloomberg headlines on X, 2 Nov 2026) · 2026-11-02
Alphabet readies €6 billion seven-part euro bond — its second euro deal of 2026 — as spreads widen and Q3 free cash flow turns negative (~-$9.1B)
Alphabet (Aa2/Moody's, AA+/S&P) is tapping euro markets despite softer secondary pricing — existing euro notes have widened up to 60 bps since issuance — and its long-term debt has surged from $46.6B at end-2025 to $125.5B by Sept 30, 2026. The deal, combined with Oracle's and Meta's same-day offerings, signals a record single-day supply event that will test investor appetite and could push IG spreads wider across the AI-issuer cohort.
S&P Global Ratings (outlook cut); DealBook/NYT and discoveryalert.com analysis (Nov 2, 2026); FourWeekMBA (Nov 2, 2026 bond launch) · 2026-11-02
S&P Global Ratings cuts Meta's credit outlook; Meta CDS hit a record ~115 bps and Q3 free cash flow turns negative for first time since 2012 as company launches multi-tranche bond sale
S&P's negative outlook revision signals Meta (AA-) is at risk of a multi-notch credit deterioration if AI monetisation lags. A record 114.79 bp five-year CDS — up sharply from the start of 2026 — combined with the first negative FCF quarter since 2012 (~-$2.12B) and a ~$97.5B financing plan means Meta is simultaneously issuing debt and equity to fund capex, pressuring credit metrics at the moment spreads are already at highs. This makes Meta's new bond deal the highest-risk IG hyperscaler print of the cycle so far.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-11-03T06:00:59.