Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 04 Nov 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
314 bp
Avg level percentile
93 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
6 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 104 bp (+35 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
456788110Dec 2025Jun 2026Nov 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9115.581090100+61.997+34.966+548.7*451–1090144
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2415.421074100+75.899+55.183+323.9416–1074324
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.397.34267100+17.999-3.033+129.466–270462
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.697.14246100+8.686+35.994+142.2*104–24693
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.695.649998+5.296+14.098+26.843–115462
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.455.568560+7.696+12.297+13.029–160462
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.785.4173100+0.356+0.253+34.019–78462
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.525.4072100+9.999+17.999+39.227–80462
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.665.316975+8.998+8.596+5.944–112462
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.285.3163100+4.992+17.397+22.1*-9–63185
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg / The Daily Upside · 2026-11-02
Oracle Raises $20 Billion in Debt and Equity at Investor Day, Pledges Positive Free Cash Flow by H2 FY2028
Oracle launched a $10 billion investment-grade bond sale alongside $10 billion in equity on 2 November — its bonds due 2066 now yield ~8.4%, versus ~6.1% for Apple/Microsoft equivalents, and its 5-year CDS hit a 3-year high of 1.25 pp. Demand for the bond sale peaked at $38 billion per Bloomberg, confirming the market will still fund AI capex but at a materially higher risk premium. Oracle has ~$125 billion of total debt (nearly 2x equity) and burned $24 billion in cash last fiscal year; Barclays has flagged a potential cash crunch by late 2026. The simultaneous equity raise signals management is trying to curb further leverage criticism.
Bloomberg / Reuters / SEC Filing · 2026-11-03
Meta Files Five-Part $20 Billion+ Dollar & Euro Bond Sale — Its First Euro Offering Ever
Meta filed a preliminary SEC prospectus supplement on 3 November for five series of senior notes (5–30 year maturities), and separately is preparing its debut 6-tranche euro bond (4–38 year maturities), together targeting at least $20 billion. This follows Meta's $97.5 billion equity raise announced the prior week and a $30 billion bond in 2025 and $25 billion in April 2026 — illustrating the sheer scale and acceleration of AI capex financing. The 30-year tranche is offered at ~250 bps over Treasuries, reflecting rising investor scrutiny of big-tech debt supply. The dollar/euro split also signals Meta is broadening its creditor base internationally for the first time.
Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance / CNBC · 2026-11-03
CoreWeave Bond Yields Hold Near 15% as Credit-Market Stress Remains Elevated; $10.6 Billion Due by End-2027
CoreWeave's 9.625% notes due 2032 are trading at ~$0.80 on the dollar with yields near 15%, firmly in distressed territory for a junk-rated (B+ at S&P) issuer. The company owed $35.6 billion in principal as of 30 June 2026, up from $21.4 billion at end-2025, with $10.6 billion (47% of all maturities) due by end-2027 and interest consuming 21.7% of Q2 revenue. Its Debt/EBITDA stands at 10.3x and Debt/Equity at ~5x. This is the clearest canary in the AI-capex credit cycle: CoreWeave's borrowing stress is already spilling over into Oracle's stock and CDS, raising systemic questions about the entire AI infrastructure debt build-out.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-11-04T06:00:55.