Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 05 Nov 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
305 bp
Avg level percentile
90 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
6 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 101 bp (+32 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
456788110Dec 2025Jun 2026Nov 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9015.40106999-21.310+68.589+527.4*451–1090145
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2415.04103399-41.44+58.685+282.5416–1074325
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.387.2625599-11.31+18.292+118.166–270463
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.697.0923798-9.43+37.197+132.8*104–24694
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.695.619296-6.32+9.196+20.543–115463
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.775.5885100+12.799+20.399+46.719–85463
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.445.598358-1.333+8.292+11.729–160463
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.285.4069100+5.492+22.698+27.5*-9–69186
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.655.296450-4.57+1.869+1.444–112463
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.515.316096-12.50+5.186+26.727–80463
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg / Reuters · 2026-11-04
Meta Raises €9 Billion in Record-Demand Debut Euro Bond Sale, Following $15B Dollar Tranche — Total Cross-Border Deal Reaches ~$24B
Meta's debut €9B euro bond drew a record €53B ($59.5B) in orders — the largest order book ever for a European corporate deal — after pricing its $15B five-part dollar tranche on Nov 3 at a 7.500% coupon on its 30-year notes (a new high for the company). S&P had already revised its AA- outlook to Negative the prior Friday, citing Meta's narrower AI monetisation avenues. The combined ~$24B cross-border raise, following a $25B April deal and a $30B 2025 deal, signals that AI capex financing costs for even AA-rated issuers are rising materially even as investor appetite remains robust.
Bloomberg / The Daily Upside / technology.org (citing Bloomberg/Reuters) · 2026-11-04
Oracle Prices $10B Five-Tranche Investment-Grade Bond Sale; Shares Drop ~9% as AI Debt Concerns Resurface
Oracle filed and priced $10B of senior notes across five tranches (3–20 year maturities) on Nov 2–3, with demand peaking at ~$38B. The deal forms the debt leg of a capped $20B incremental financing plan (split $10B debt / $10B equity) through FY2030 announced at its investor day, designed to cap leverage concerns. Despite strong demand, Oracle shares fell ~9% on the day, reflecting market anxiety over the company's BBB- rating (S&P downgraded it in July 2026), $125B+ existing notes payable, and negative free cash flow — making it the single largest non-financial issuer in the US IG bond index and the closest traded proxy for AI infrastructure credit risk.
Bloomberg / technology.org / Reuters · 2026-11-04
Alphabet Prices €6B Seven-Part Euro Bond at Notably Higher Yields Than May Deal, Settling November 5
Alphabet raised €6B ($6.7B) on Nov 2 in a seven-tranche euro deal — its second euro sale of 2026 — with coupons ranging from 3.700% (2028) to 5.250% (2045), settling Nov 5. Orders exceeded €17B but Alphabet paid materially higher yields than its €9B May deal, a concrete sign of spread widening for even AA-rated AI capex issuers. With $98.2B in long-term debt as of June 30 and $51.8B in dollar and foreign-currency notes already issued in H1 2026, the deal illustrates how hyperscaler external financing (now 32% of capex vs. 9% in FY24) is repricing across maturities and currencies simultaneously.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-11-05T06:02:02.