Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 06 Nov 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
316 bp
Avg level percentile
90 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
10 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 98 bp (+28 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
456788110Dec 2025Jun 2026Nov 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9015.941127100+58.095+188.099+585.4*451–1127146
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2415.701104100+70.999+215.899+353.4416–1104326
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.387.2025498-0.937+39.899+117.266–270464
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.697.0924299+5.177+34.192+137.9*104–24695
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.695.559095-2.416+7.593+18.143–115464
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.775.4880100-5.34+16.498+41.419–85464
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.445.508054-3.812+11.195+7.929–160464
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.655.266557+0.965+7.494+2.344–112464
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.515.265996-1.033+9.995+25.727–80464
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.285.225698-13.12+17.697+14.4*-9–69187
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Bloomberg / Reuters · 2026-11-05
Meta Raises $15B in Dollar Bonds Then Prices Debut €9B Euro Bond Sale, Drawing Record €62B Order Book
Meta completed a two-leg cross-currency bond blitz—$15B in USD notes (coupons 5.85%–7.50%) on Nov 4 followed immediately by a debut €9B six-tranche euro deal that drew a record €62B book, dwarfing the prior European corporate record. Coupons are materially higher than Meta's April 2026 deal, signalling rising AI-capex financing costs even for double-A rated issuers. Combined with Meta's parallel ~$97.5B equity raise, total capital raised in days exceeds $120B—the largest short-window financing by any single tech issuer in history.
technology.org (citing Bloomberg/Reuters) / 24-7 Wall St. · 2026-11-04
Oracle Prices $10B Senior Notes as Part of $20B Stock-and-Bond Package; Shares Sink 8.8% on Leverage Fears
Oracle (Baa2/BBB, negative outlook) filed to sell $10B of senior unsecured notes and $10B of new equity simultaneously on Nov 2–3, completing the bond tranche by Nov 4. Its existing 2031 bond now yields ~7.28%—roughly 230 bps wide of similarly rated peers—and its 5-year CDS has reached 18-year highs. The stock dropped 8.8% on the announcement day, reflecting deep credit-market anxiety about Oracle's leverage trajectory as it pursues a cumulative $40–50B AI data-center funding plan through FY2030.
Bloomberg · 2026-11-05
CoreWeave Bonds Fall to New Lows (~79.5 Cents) with Yields Exceeding 15% After Election Results Threaten Texas Data-Center Pipeline
CoreWeave's (S&P B+; Fitch B) unsecured 2031 notes traded as low as 79.5 cents on the dollar on Nov 4–5, with yields on its 2030 and 2032 paper also exceeding 15%—firmly in distressed territory—after gubernatorial election wins by candidates favouring data-center construction slowdowns, including in Texas, a key CoreWeave buildout state. With ~$35.6B in debt principal, $10.6B due by end-2027, and interest consuming 21.7% of quarterly revenue, the political risk adds a new, non-financial dimension to its already precarious credit profile and raises refinancing-risk concerns for the broader neocloud sector.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-11-06T06:01:39.