Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 07 Nov 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
328 bp
Avg level percentile
84 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
4 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 96 bp (+27 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
456788110Dec 2025Jun 2026Nov 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY4.9016.631196100+69.198+234.999+654.5*451–1196147
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.2416.431177100+73.399+241.1100+426.7416–1177327
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.387.39273100+18.399+31.698+135.566–273465
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.687.0423897-4.614+19.581+133.3*104–24696
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.695.528893-2.416-0.447+15.743–115465
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.445.487852-1.432+2.266+6.529–160465
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.775.427499-5.73+8.193+35.719–85465
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.655.175614-9.11-8.24-6.844–112465
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.515.225694-3.310-0.940+22.427–80465
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.275.154887-7.95+0.049+6.5*-9–69188
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

CNBC · 2026-11-06
CoreWeave Bond Yield Tops 16% as 5-Year CDS Spikes Above 1,289 bps on AI Credit-Stress and Data-Center Political Risk
CoreWeave's 2032 bond (9.625% coupon) now yields above 16% and its 5-year CDS spiked above 1,289 bps on November 6 — well inside distressed territory — as Bloomberg reported the company's unsecured 2031 notes traded as low as 79.5 cents on the dollar after gubernatorial election results threatened Texas data-center construction timelines. With ~$52bn in debt and lease liabilities, deteriorating bond prices raise the spectre of a forced funding slowdown or equity dilution for the AI cloud sector's most leveraged borrower.
FourWeekMBA / Markit data via Bloomberg Terminal (Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone) · 2026-11-05
SpaceX 5-Year CDS Widens to Record 286.56 bps — Within 10 bps of Oracle — as AI-Debt Selloff Broadens
SpaceX's 5-year credit-default swap spread hit a new all-time record of 286.56 bps on November 5, widening 24.5 bps (~9%) in a single session, per Markit data cited by Bloomberg. At just 9 bps behind Oracle's 296 bps, SpaceX is rapidly converging with the sector's most stressed investment-grade issuer. The move signals that credit markets are repricing the risk of SpaceX's heavy AI-capex debt load — reportedly a $40bn planned chip-financing raise — as the broader AI credit-stress contagion widens beyond CoreWeave to BBB-rated names.
The Daily Upside / technology.org (Bloomberg-sourced pricing) / Axios · 2026-11-03
Oracle Prices $10bn Bond Sale at Near-Junk Spreads; Moody's Holds Baa2 Negative Outlook as CDS Hit Three-Year Highs
Oracle priced $10bn in senior notes across five tranches (3–20 year) with longest-tenor spreads at +335 bps over Treasuries — consistent with high-yield pricing despite its BBB-/Baa2 rating. Moody's maintained its negative outlook (signalling a possible further downgrade toward junk), and Oracle's 5-year CDS hit a three-year high of ~125–305 bps within days of the deal. Morgan Stanley projects Oracle's net adjusted debt could triple to ~$290bn by FY2028, making this the most acute investment-grade-to-junk 'fallen angel' risk in the AI-capex universe.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-11-07T06:01:47.