Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 11 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
215 bp
Avg level percentile
76 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
0 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 74 bp (+5 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Sep 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0512.2876985+13.577-68.94+226.9*451–915110
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3911.7972384+13.774-53.314-27.6416–856290
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.536.0715090-3.712-9.49+12.266–182428
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY 4.846.00141-1.8-2.1+36.8*104–17759
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.845.378491+3.088+5.185+12.353–115428
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.805.106339-0.347+3.383-0.149–112428
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.595.246018-2.418-1.544-11.729–160428
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.935.185892-1.723-3.918+19.526–78428
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.675.125494+0.455-1.433+20.827–71428
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.435.054891+1.470+0.855+6.9*-9–51151
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Financial Times / S&P Global (via startupfortune.com synthesis, citing FT and S&P directly) · 2026-09-09
Hyperscaler Bond Spreads Widen as $220B AI-Capex Issuance Glut Pushes Up Global Borrowing Costs
Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle have collectively issued ~$220B in investment-grade bonds year-to-date 2026, already surpassing all of 2025. S&P puts the figure at $225B (+974% YoY). Spreads on 2–4yr paper have widened to 40bps over Treasuries (from 30bps in 2025); 5–7yr to 60bps; 20yr+ to 118bps. Of 91 hyperscaler bonds issued in 2026, 78 are trading wider than issuance — median drift of +22bps (Reuters). The supply glut is repricing debt markets globally in CHF, CAD, and GBP, raising costs for all corporate borrowers.
S&P Global Ratings · 2026-07-09
S&P Downgrades Oracle to BBB- (One Notch Above Junk), Citing OpenAI Concentration Risk and $42B Free-Cash-Flow Deficit Forecast
S&P cut Oracle to BBB- (stable outlook) — the lowest investment-grade rung — because AI data-center capex of $90–95B is forecast for FY2027, versus an earlier $60B estimate, generating a projected $42B free-cash-flow deficit. OpenAI, flagged as a 'key credit risk,' accounts for ~50% of Oracle's $638B remaining performance obligations. Oracle's 4.125% 2045 bonds trade at 67.9 cents / 7.3% yield. Any further one-notch downgrade triggers fallen-angel selling across ~$167B of debt. NOTE: This action dates to July 9, 2026 — outside the strict 48-hour window; no confirmed Sep 9–11 rating action from S&P/Moody's/Fitch on these issuers was found.
CoreWeave Investor Relations (SEC Form 8-K) / Fitch Ratings / Moody's · 2026-08-10
CoreWeave Closes $2.6B DDTL 5.5 GPU-Backed Facility (Ba2/BB+); Lenders Accept Renewal Risk on 3-Year Contracts Against 5-Year Loan
CoreWeave closed a $2.6B delayed-draw term loan (SOFR+550bps, ~5yr maturity) rated Ba2/BB+ — a structural departure from prior facilities because underlying customer contracts average only ~3 years, leaving a ~2-year maturity gap that lenders must underwrite as renewal risk. The facility is backed by contracts with Anthropic (~40%) and Jane Street (~35%), neither of which carries a public credit rating. Fitch noted gross EBITDA leverage of 7.0x (2025), FCF negative through 2027, and $41B capex planned for 2026. YTD 2026 debt+equity secured now exceeds $30B. NOTE: Dated Aug 10, 2026 — outside the strict 48-hour window; no confirmed Sep 9–11 CoreWeave action was found.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-11T06:01:52.