Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 24 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
213 bp
Avg level percentile
62 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
3 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 68 bp (-1 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Sep 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0212.7479290-14.515+22.657+250.8*451–915116
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3612.0472283-11.828+3.050-28.2416–856296
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.506.3315291-4.211+2.864+14.866–182434
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.806.1713523+1.563-4.536+30.4*104–17765
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.815.557452+0.456+30.9100+1.943–115434
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.775.406238+6.897+15.198-0.547–112434
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.565.415714+1.269+10.696-14.729–160434
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.895.314985+30.0100-9.63+10.519–78434
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.635.284682+0.048-6.68+12.927–71434
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.395.203858-0.246-8.39-3.4*-9–51157
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Reuters · 2026-09-22
Corporate Bond Buyers Get Picky With Flood of AI Debt as IG Credit Market Splits in Two
Reuters reports that investment-grade credit has bifurcated: AI-capex issuers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) face investor caution and demands for generous concessions, while traditional issuers see spirited bidding. Goldman Sachs data show hyperscaler gross debt issuance is on track to hit a record $420 billion in 2027, up 60% from 2026 estimates — a structural supply-overhang that is forcing portfolio managers to rethink concentration limits and is widening spreads across the entire AI-issuer cohort.
DiscoveryAlert (citing Bloomberg / September 2026 research) · 2026-09-22
~80% of Hyperscaler Bonds Issued Since Early 2025 Now Trading Wider Than at Issuance, Bloomberg Data Show
Bloomberg research summarised in September 2026 reporting shows nearly 80% of hyperscaler bonds issued since early 2025 are trading at wider spreads than when sold, signalling that professional investors are quietly repricing AI infrastructure credit risk even as formal investment-grade ratings remain unchanged. Technology's share of major credit benchmarks could exceed 12%, mechanically forcing passive bond-index funds into ever-larger concentrated positions — a systemic concern for Digital Realty, Equinix, and other data-centre REITs whose financing costs track the same index-benchmark dynamics.
CoreWeave IR / SEC Filing (8-K) · 2026-08-10
CoreWeave Closes $2.6 Billion DDTL 5.5 Facility (Ba2/BB+), Financing Shorter-Dated Customer Contracts for First Time
CoreWeave's DDTL 5.5 — rated Ba2 by Moody's and BB+ by Fitch — is the first GPU-backed facility to finance customer contracts shorter than the debt's own maturity (~3-year contracts vs. ~5-year loan), requiring lenders to explicitly underwrite contract-renewal risk. The deal, which was meaningfully oversubscribed and priced at SOFR+550bps, brings CoreWeave's total 2026 debt-and-equity capital raises above $30 billion and sets a new template for AI infrastructure credit that directly affects how Equinix, Digital Realty, and other co-location landlords can structure their own project-finance facilities.
Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-24T06:01:03.