Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 15 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›

Basket avg OAS

209 bp

Avg level percentile

69 / 100

Widening — 1w top decile

0 / 10

Stale (no fresh trade)

0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 73 bp (+4 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025

← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →

	CURRENT			LEVEL	1-DAY Δ		1-WEEK Δ		YTD	HISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturity	Yrs	Yield %	OAS bp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	%ile	Δbp	range bp	trend (last 90)	n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY	5.04	12.25	749	75	-21.2	9	-54.4	7	+207.0*	451–915		112
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY	4.38	11.67	692	78	-26.6	9	-57.5	13	-57.8	416–856		292
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG	4.52	6.23	149	89	-0.6	40	-12.2	5	+11.4	66–182		430
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY	4.83	6.14	138	25	-1.4	36	-4.6	–	+33.5*	104–177		61
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG	3.83	5.53	81	85	+38.1	100	+0.1	52	+9.1	43–115		430
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG	2.79	5.30	63	41	+15.8	100	+4.4	88	+0.2	47–112		430
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG	5.58	5.43	62	26	+16.0	100	-0.1	53	-9.3	29–160		430
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG	4.91	5.34	57	91	-1.5	25	-4.5	13	+18.6	26–78		430
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG	4.65	5.28	53	92	+0.0	48	+0.6	53	+19.5	27–71		430
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG	4.42	5.22	47	86	+0.7	63	-1.8	37	+5.6*	-9–51		153

Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

Yahoo Finance (citing Reuters Breakingviews) · ~2026-09-12 (confirmed as '3 days ago' on 2026-09-15)

Oracle Just Showed a Less Painful Way to Finance AI Clouds. That's Awkward for CoreWeave

Directly compares Oracle's BBB-rated unsecured-bond model (backed by $664B remaining performance obligations) against CoreWeave's high-yield GPU-collateralised debt stack; CoreWeave short interest ~18.9% vs Oracle ~2.8%, highlighting acute credit-market divergence within AI capex issuers.

CoreWeave IR / SEC 8-K · 2026-08-10

CoreWeave Closes $2.6 Billion Loan Facility (DDTL 5.5), Expanding Financing Flexibility for AI Infrastructure

DDTL 5.5 breaks new structural ground: lenders accept ~3-year customer contracts as collateral for ~5-year debt, signalling willingness to underwrite GPU renewal risk — a credit-market precedent with direct read-across to Digital Realty, Equinix and other data-centre lenders.

Moody's Ratings (reported by CNBC / Cryptopolitan) · 2026-07-24

Moody's Warns 'Unprecedented' AI Spending Threatens Credit Quality of Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Others; Combined Capex to Hit $785B in 2026

Formal rating-agency warning covering six issuers on the watchlist: $460B in direct debt, $1.2T in lease commitments, negative FCF at Alphabet for first time since IPO — the definitive credit-stress benchmark for the AI-capex cohort in 2026.

Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-15T06:00:58.