Credit Spread Monitor for US AI Capex ecosystem

Option-adjusted spreads (OAS — BDT lattice for callable HY, Z-spread for the rest) · 10 bonds · as of 25 Sep 2026 · empirical percentiles vs each bond's own history · 📖 How to read this › · 📁 Archive (last 130) ›
Basket avg OAS
219 bp
Avg level percentile
64 / 100
Widening — 1w top decile
1 / 10
Stale (no fresh trade)
0 / 10

Investment-Grade average OAS 69 bp (-1 bp since 31 Dec 2025)

Mean OAS of the 7 IG bonds — all names except CoreWeave & SpaceX · since 31 Dec 2025
48607386Dec 2025May 2026Sep 2026
← swipe the table sideways for changes, trend & history →
CURRENTLEVEL1-DAY Δ1-WEEK ΔYTDHISTORY
Issuer / coupon / maturityYrsYield %OAS bp%ileΔbp%ileΔbp%ileΔbprange bptrend (last 90)n
CoreWeave 9.75 Oct-31 HY5.0213.2282497+31.693+75.495+282.4*451–915117
CoreWeave 9.0 Feb-31 HY4.3512.4774992+26.988+56.586-1.3416–856297
Oracle 2.875 Mar-31 IG4.506.4614989-3.117+0.351+11.766–182435
SpaceX 5.35 Jul-31 HY4.806.3413525+0.553-2.643+30.9*104–17766
Equinix 2.15 Jul-30 IG3.805.727560+1.368-5.910+3.243–115435
Micron 2.703 Apr-32 IG5.565.585715+0.562-4.924-14.229–160435
Digital Realty 3.6 Jul-29 IG2.775.515720-5.24-5.910-5.747–112435
Meta 4.55 Aug-31 IG4.895.535590+5.897-2.328+16.319–78435
Amazon 2.1 May-31 IG4.635.444683+0.252-6.49+13.127–71435
Alphabet 4.1 Feb-31 IG4.395.384070+2.280-6.812-1.2*-9–51158
Level %ile tight wide (stress) Δ %ile widening tightening no trade Nd carried forward — no FINRA trade in N days ⚠ short history (n<60)* YTD since issue

Newsworthy — last 48h

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Method. OAS = option-adjusted spread over the bootstrapped US Treasury zero curve (from FRED CMT par yields) that reprices each bond's cash flows to its FINRA clean price. For the callable high-yield names (CoreWeave, SpaceX) the embedded call is valued on a Black-Derman-Toy short-rate lattice (CMT curve, lognormal vol per name) and its cost subtracted; the remaining bonds' calls are out-of-the-money (par-call near maturity) so their OAS equals the Z-spread to within a fraction of a bp. Illiquid bonds without a fresh TRACE print carry their last price forward, flagged no trade Nd. Level %ile = today's OAS within the bond's own history; Δ %ile = today's 1d/1w change within all historical same-horizon changes (100 = most extreme widening); PERCENTRANK.INC, suppressed below n=60. The trend sparkline spans each bond's last 90 sessions (shorter if its history is shorter) so all names cover a common window. Watch HY (CoreWeave, SpaceX) blowing out while IG (Meta, Oracle) holds — that divergence is the funding-stress tell.
Generated 2026-09-25T06:00:24.